TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 11, 10:10 PM EST
Kalshi
A professional USL Cup soccer match between Forward Madison FC and Union Omaha SC scheduled for July 11, 2026. The outcome is determined by the result after 90 minutes of play plus stoppage time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
This event covers the Forward Madison FC vs Union Omaha SC professional USL Cup soccer game scheduled for July 11, 2026, evaluated at the conclusion of 90 minutes plus stoppage time (excluding extra time or penalties). Resolution is based on the final score after regulation play: a Forward Madison FC victory resolves the Forward Madison market to Yes, a Union Omaha SC victory resolves the Union Omaha market to Yes, and a tied result resolves the Tie market to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled more than two weeks from the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price in accordance with standard rules.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and profit margins, while prediction markets like this one are driven purely by trader consensus. Traders betting real money on this market may incorporate information faster than traditional sportsbooks adjust their lines. Comparing the two can reveal where the crowd sees value or where public perception differs from professional oddsmakers, though both sources provide useful signals for understanding the matchup's likely outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing each outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each share reflects the collective belief in that outcome's probability, ranging from near zero to near 100. As new information emerges or trader conviction shifts, the bid-ask spread tightens or widens accordingly. You can place limit or market orders to enter or exit positions, and the market price updates continuously based on supply and demand throughout the trading session.
This market resolves around Jul 12, 2026, once the match concludes and the result is verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome is determined by the final score and official match result as confirmed through established sports data sources. Until that point, traders can continue to adjust positions based on team form, lineup announcements, and other pre-match signals. Resolution is automatic once the event is complete and the data is confirmed, closing all open positions and settling winnings to traders who backed the correct outcome.
Key catalysts include team injury announcements, lineup changes, recent form and head-to-head records, and weather conditions on match day. Unexpected roster moves or coaching decisions can shift trader sentiment sharply. Pre-match media coverage, expert analysis, and betting action from sharp bettors often trigger repricing. Close to kickoff, late-breaking news such as player absences or tactical adjustments may cause significant volatility. Social media momentum and public perception can also influence odds, particularly if one team gains or loses confidence in the days leading up to the fixture.