TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 13, 7:30 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of two soccer teams in a professional league match, focusing on the margin of victory. It evaluates whether the winning team achieves a decisive lead over their opponent by a specific number of goals. The outcome depends purely on the final score after regular time, excluding any extra periods or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates various winning margins in a specific professional soccer match between Fortaleza and Ceara, scheduled for September 13, 2026, in the Brasileiro Serie B league. Resolution is based solely on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with no consideration for extra time or penalty phases. Four distinct outcome scenarios are assessed: Fortaleza winning by more than 2.5 goals, Fortaleza winning by more than 1.5 goals, Ceara winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Ceara winning by more than 2.5 goals. Each scenario corresponds to a separate market that resolves to 'Yes' if the specified condition is met. The rules clarify that Kalshi, the platform hosting these markets, holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often differ from those offered by traditional sportsbooks, reflecting the wisdom of the crowd versus the assessments of professional oddsmakers. Sportsbooks set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market aggregates the opinions of many individuals, potentially incorporating unique or overlooked information. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before a significant amount of trading occurs. These differences can present opportunities for arbitrage, where traders capitalize on price variations between the two types of markets.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The platform uses a market maker system to ensure there are always bids and asks available, facilitating smooth trading and price discovery for the Fortaleza vs Ceara match spread.
This market resolves around Sep 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result of the Fortaleza vs Ceara match, specifically the goal spread, will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The platform relies on publicly available data to establish the definitive result, ensuring a transparent and objective resolution process. Traders should monitor official sources for the match outcome as the resolution date approaches.
Several factors could influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market. Key player injuries or suspensions for either Fortaleza or Ceara would likely have a significant impact. Unexpected changes in team form, such as a surprising win or loss in a recent match, could also alter perceptions. Additionally, any news regarding weather conditions or referee assignments could introduce uncertainty and affect trading volume. Major announcements related to team strategy or player availability are also potential catalysts for movement in this market.