TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 90
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 28, 2026
Closed: Sep 28, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether the movie “Forgotten Island” will achieve a Tomatometer score of at least 95% on Rotten Tomatoes. Currently, the aggregated consensus across Kalshi and Polymarket gives a 100.0% probability to this outcome. This prediction market aggregates data from Kalshi and Polymarket and will resolve based on the “All Critics” Tomatometer score displayed by Rotten Tomatoes at 10:00 AM ET on September 28, 2026. Keep an eye on the film’s initial critical reception following its release, as reviews published before September 28, 2026, will heavily influence the final score.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi presents multiple 'Yes' conditions based on varying thresholds, while Polymarket offers distinct markets for each specific threshold.Hero tip: Diversify your positions across platforms to hedge against uncertainty regarding the final Tomatometer score.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Polymarket markets resolve 'Yes' if the Tomatometer score is *at least* a specified value (80, 85, 90, 95) at 10:00 AM ET on September 28, 2026. Question: 'Will "Forgotten Island" score at least [threshold] on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?'
- Kalshi: Kalshi markets resolve 'Yes' if the Tomatometer score is *above* any of a series of thresholds (45, 50, 55, 60, 65, 70, 75, 80, 85, 90, 92, 95, 97) at 10:00 AM ET on September 28, 2026. Multiple conditions can trigger a 'Yes' resolution.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the displayed Rotten Tomatoes "All Critics" Tomatometer score for Forgotten Island is at least equal to the specified number at 10:00 AM ET on September 28, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If, for any reason, the resolution data is unavailable at this market's specified end time, the resolution source will be checked until the relevant data is available. This market will resolve to "No" if no data is available by October 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Kalshi
The markets evaluate whether the film Forgotten Island achieves specific Rotten Tomatoes score thresholds by September 28, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Each market corresponds to a distinct score level, ranging from above 45 to above 90. A market resolves to 'Yes' only if the film's Tomatometer score exceeds the specified threshold. For instance, a score of 75 would not satisfy the 'Above 75' market but would meet all lower thresholds. All markets are determined on the Monday following the film's wide release. Importantly, these markets are independent of any official endorsement by Rotten Tomatoes, which is referenced only descriptively and not affiliatively.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often provide a more accurate forecast than traditional analyst predictions. This is because markets aggregate the wisdom of many individuals, incentivized to make correct predictions through financial reward. While film critics offer subjective opinions, this market reflects a collective assessment of the film’s potential appeal to a broader audience. Discrepancies can arise due to biases in analyst reports or differing methodologies, but the financial incentive in a prediction market tends to drive more objective and accurate forecasting. The current pricing reflects a strong expectation for a positive Rotten Tomatoes score.