TOTAL VOLUME:
$146.8b
24H VOL:
$195,140,064
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,782,432,967
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,796,567,512
505,022
Markets across
37,605
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,846
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
Closed: Oct 3, 7:05 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Missouri will win the college football game against Florida by more than 3.5 points. Currently, Kalshi gives a 99.0% probability to Missouri winning by over 3.5 points. The resolution source for this market is the outcome of the Florida vs Missouri college football game originally scheduled for Oct 3, 2026, with a win by more than 2.5 points resolving the market to Yes. Keep a close watch on the game itself on October 3, 2026, as the final score will determine the market’s outcome.
All markets resolve based on the official final result of the Florida vs Missouri college football game scheduled for October 3, 2026. For markets predicting Florida wins by specified margins, resolution occurs if Florida’s victory exceeds the stated point difference. Conversely, markets predicting Missouri wins resolve if Missouri’s victory exceeds the stated margin. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of the original start time, all markets remain active and resolve according to the final result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the specific outcome thresholds.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or breaking news. If a large number of traders believe a sportsbook’s line is inaccurate, they can drive the price on Kalshi in a different direction, potentially offering better value than what’s available at traditional sportsbooks. However, these odds will converge as the event approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the Florida vs Missouri game. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread being the final result. Traders are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome, as profitable trades are rewarded. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe a particular spread is likely, the higher its price will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism creates a market-driven forecast of the game’s final spread.
This market resolves around Oct 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be determined by the official result of the Florida vs Missouri game. The platform will then settle all outstanding contracts based on whether the actual spread fell within the range represented by each contract. Traders holding winning contracts will receive a payout, while those holding losing contracts will forfeit their initial investment. The resolution process is designed to be transparent and objective.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any significant news regarding injuries to key players on either the Florida or Missouri teams would likely cause a shift in the spread. Changes in coaching strategies, weather forecasts impacting the game, or even public sentiment based on expert analysis could all play a role. Unexpected line movements at major sportsbooks might also prompt traders to reassess their positions. Volume spikes on Kalshi following these events would indicate increased market activity and potentially signal a change in expectations.