TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 19, 10:48 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting whether one team will dominate the second half of a college football game by a specific margin. Each outcome represents a different point differential threshold that must be exceeded for the bet to succeed.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the second half of play, including any overtime periods. If Florida wins the second half by exceeding the specified point margin, all corresponding Florida markets resolve as Yes, while all Auburn markets resolve as No, and vice versa. Should the game be postponed but commence within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, all markets remain active and resolve according to the final official result. If the game fails to start within this 48-hour window, all markets will instead resolve at a fair price, determined independently of the actual game outcome. The contest exclusively considers second-half performance, with no regard to the first half's scoring.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for a profit margin, while this market is driven purely by traders' beliefs about the likely outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook lines, it could indicate that the crowd believes the sportsbook is mispricing the event. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities, and neither is guaranteed to be correct.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the second half. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to offer accurate predictions, as they profit if their predictions are correct and lose if they are wrong. This dynamic process leads to a market price that aggregates the collective intelligence of all traders.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread for the second half of the Florida-Auburn game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the governing sports authority. The final spread will be compared to the contracts traded on Kalshi to determine which contracts will pay out and at what value. Traders holding winning contracts will receive a payout based on the contract's value at resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Florida or Auburn teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to impact the game's style of play, could also affect the market. Additionally, large volume trades from informed traders or institutional investors could shift the price, and even public sentiment, as reflected in social media or expert analysis, can play a role in shaping the market’s direction.