TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 19, 9:17 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the point differential in the second half of a college football game between Florida State and Alabama. Each market corresponds to a specific point margin threshold that must be exceeded by either team during the second half to determine the outcome.
All markets resolve based on the official point differential occurring exclusively in the second half (including overtime) of the Florida State versus Alabama college football game scheduled for September 19, 2026. Each market specifies a different point margin threshold, with outcomes resolving to 'Yes' if the specified team wins the second half by more than the stated margin. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, all markets remain open and resolve according to the final official result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the specific threshold market.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the 'wisdom of the crowd,' potentially incorporating information and perspectives not fully captured by traditional sportsbooks. While sportsbooks set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, this market allows a broader range of participants to express their beliefs, which can lead to differing probabilities. It's common to see discrepancies emerge, especially as new information becomes available or public sentiment shifts. However, both aim to accurately predict the outcome of the game, and the comparison can be insightful for those seeking an edge.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the second half. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that spread occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current top market on Kalshi is for Alabama wins 2H by over 29.5 points, though probabilities are subject to change based on trading activity and new information.
This market resolves around Sep 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the second half of the Florida St vs Alabama game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the governing body of college football. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout of $1.00 per contract, while those holding contracts on incorrect spreads will receive $0.00. The final score will determine the winning contracts in this market.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. Any significant news regarding player injuries, changes in coaching strategies, or even weather conditions could shift expectations and impact trading activity. Unexpected performance in the first half of the game would also likely cause substantial movement. Public sentiment, as reflected in social media and sports news, can also play a role, as traders react to evolving narratives. Major upsets in other relevant games could also indirectly affect this market, influencing overall confidence in team performance.