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Closed: Sep 5, 11:22 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting the point differential in the final quarter of a college football game between Florida Atlantic and Florida. Each market corresponds to a specific threshold, indicating whether one team will outscore the other by a margin exceeding that threshold in the fourth quarter alone.
The markets resolve based on the point differential scored exclusively during the 4th quarter (excluding overtime) of the Florida Atlantic vs Florida college football game scheduled for Sep 5, 2026. If Florida wins the 4th quarter by more than the specified margin (ranging from 2.5 to 23.5 points), the corresponding 'Florida wins 4Q by over X points' market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if Florida Atlantic wins the 4th quarter by more than the specified margin (2.5 to 10.5 points), the relevant 'Florida Atlantic wins 4Q by over X points' market resolves to Yes. Should the game be postponed but commence within 48 hours of its original schedule, all markets remain active and resolve per the final official result. If the game fails to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price. Only points scored in the 4th quarter count toward these outcomes; overtime points are excluded.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to express their belief about the outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists, it may indicate that the crowd believes there’s value in one direction, or that sportsbooks are factoring in elements not fully captured by the prediction market participants. It’s common to see convergence as the event approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable traders are rewarded and those with inaccurate views may incur losses. The current price indicates what the collective market believes is the most likely outcome for the fourth quarter spread.
This market resolves around Sep 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final fourth quarter spread of the Florida vs. Florida Atlantic game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the governing sports authority, ensuring an objective and transparent determination of the winning spread. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their positions based on the final result.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team, changes in weather conditions, or significant shifts in public perception could all cause the market to move. Unexpected coaching decisions or in-game performance during earlier quarters could also impact trader sentiment. As the game draws closer, even minor updates or analysis from sports commentators could contribute to price fluctuations in this market.