TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Denny Hamlin

 - Kalshi

Denny Hamlin - Kalshi

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Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 8, 2026

Closed: Jun 7, 7:54 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Denny Hamlin

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$500,949
N/A
N/A
$328,854
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Carson Hocevar

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$425,828
N/A
N/A
$329,571
Settled
No
kalshi

Bubba Wallace

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$280,478
N/A
N/A
$220,020
Settled
No
kalshi

Tyler Reddick

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$246,992
N/A
N/A
$204,615
Settled
No
kalshi

Daniel Suárez

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$242,088
N/A
N/A
$186,390
Settled
No
kalshi

William Byron

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$224,376
N/A
N/A
$202,906
Settled
No
kalshi

Kyle Larson

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$218,566
N/A
N/A
$198,854
Settled
No
kalshi

Chase Elliott

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$200,940
N/A
N/A
$190,689
Settled
No
kalshi

Joey Logano

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$175,101
N/A
N/A
$164,842
Settled
No
kalshi

Erik Jones

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$170,775
N/A
N/A
$151,255
Settled
No
kalshi

Christopher Bell

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$169,942
N/A
N/A
$153,814
Settled
No
kalshi

Chris Buescher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$164,409
N/A
N/A
$160,028
Settled
No
kalshi

Ryan Blaney

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$164,091
N/A
N/A
$157,907
Settled
No
kalshi

Zane Smith

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$148,632
N/A
N/A
$145,311
Settled
No
kalshi

Riley Herbst

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$138,347
N/A
N/A
$129,775
Settled
No
kalshi

Ty Gibbs

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$129,928
N/A
N/A
$117,477
Settled
No
kalshi

Ross Chastain

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$115,216
N/A
N/A
$100,950
Settled
No
kalshi

Chase Briscoe

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$72,927
N/A
N/A
$68,126
Settled
No
kalshi

AJ Allmendinger

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$72,350
N/A
N/A
$72,350
Settled
No
kalshi

Brad Keselowski

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$56,937
N/A
N/A
$55,347
Settled
No
kalshi

Alex Bowman

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$38,066
N/A
N/A
$37,266
Settled
No
kalshi

Ryan Preece

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$31,428
N/A
N/A
$31,272
Settled
No
kalshi

Shane Van Gisbergen

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$31,085
N/A
N/A
$30,885
Settled
No
kalshi

Ricky Stenhouse

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$27,430
N/A
N/A
$27,430
Settled
No
kalshi

Connor Zilisch

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$26,091
N/A
N/A
$26,091
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 37

Intro

This market tracks whether Denny Hamlin will win the FireKeepers Casino 400 NASCAR Cup Series race at FireKeepers Casino in 2026, with Hamlin priced at 91.0% on Kalshi. Carson Hocevar is the second-most-likely outcome at 6.0%. Resolution will be determined by official results from the Main Event finish, per Kalshi's resolution criteria. Watch for the race outcome on June 8, 2026, when the FireKeepers Casino 400 Main Event concludes.

Frequently asked questions

The FireKeepers Casino 400 Winner dashboard on Kalshi tracks real-time odds and historical price movements for this NASCAR event. You can monitor the current implied probability of each driver winning the race, view 24-hour trading volume at $3,566,904, and observe how odds shift as race day approaches. The dashboard displays live bid-ask spreads, recent trade activity, and cumulative market interest. This centralized view helps traders and fans understand which drivers the prediction market favors and how sentiment evolves leading up to the Jun 8, 2026 resolution date.

Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional sportsbook lines because they reflect real-time trader sentiment rather than fixed bookmaker spreads. Sportsbooks adjust odds to balance liability, while prediction markets aggregate decentralized beliefs about race outcomes. FireKeepers Casino 400 Winner traders may price certain drivers differently than Las Vegas or online sportsbooks, especially as new information emerges. Comparing the two venues reveals whether the crowd-sourced prediction market is more bullish or bearish on specific contenders than professional oddsmakers.

On Kalshi, FireKeepers Casino 400 Winner contracts are priced as binary or multiple-outcome shares reflecting the probability each driver wins the race. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy and sell shares at prices between 0 and 100 cents, with the winning driver's contract resolving to 100 cents and all others to zero. The current market price of each driver contract represents the collective forecast of Kalshi traders. Liquidity and spreads vary by driver popularity, with favorites typically showing tighter bid-ask gaps and higher trading volume than long-shot contenders.

The FireKeepers Casino 400 Winner market resolves on Jun 8, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official race result announced by NASCAR and the track. The driver who crosses the finish line first and is confirmed as the winner by race officials triggers resolution. Markets typically settle within hours of the official declaration to ensure accuracy and finality. Traders should monitor official NASCAR communications and FireKeepers Casino announcements for any delays, weather postponements, or other factors that might affect the exact resolution timing.

FireKeepers Casino 400 Winner odds will shift based on driver performance in preceding races, qualifying results, weather forecasts, and injury or mechanical updates. Strong finishes by contenders in recent events typically boost their odds, while poor performances reduce them. Track conditions, fuel strategy discussions, and pit crew changes can also influence trader sentiment. Breaking news about driver changes, sponsor announcements, or rule modifications may trigger sharp repricing. As race day approaches, real-time weather updates and final practice session results often generate the most volatile price movements in the final hours before the race begins.