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FIDE World Top Chess Players: Top 5 Rated in July 2026
kalshi

FIDE World Top Chess Players: Top 5 Rated in July 2026

Volume:
$4,239

Vincent Keymer

 - Kalshi

Vincent Keymer - Kalshi

1W

News

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Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 1, 2026

Closed: Jul 1, 10:31 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Vincent Keymer

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,170
N/A
N/A
$1,347
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnus Carlsen

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$605
N/A
N/A
$605
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Hikaru Nakamura

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Fabiano Caruana

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Javokhir Sindarov

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$48
N/A
N/A
$42
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Nodirbek Abdusattorov

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,216
N/A
N/A
$780
Settled
No
kalshi

Alireza Firouzja

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Wesley So

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Wei Yi

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Anish Giri

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Arjun Erigaisi

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Jan-Krzysztof Duda

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Gukesh Dommaraju

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 14

Description

A select group of elite chess players will compete in international tournaments and matches throughout the first half of 2026. Their performance will be reflected in their official FIDE standard ratings, with this event tracking whether any of these players achieves a top-5 position on the global rating list by July 2026.

Kalshi

A player resolves to Yes if they appear in the top 5 positions on the July 2026 FIDE World Top Players (top 100 players) Standard Rating List. When players have equal Elo ratings, FIDE's tiebreaking rules apply in order: the player with more rated games in the rating period ranks higher; if games are equal, the younger player (later birth date) ranks higher; if both are equal, players are ordered alphabetically by surname.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional sportsbook lines because they reflect real-time trader sentiment rather than fixed bookmaker spreads. Sportsbooks typically adjust odds less frequently and build in wider margins. Prediction markets aggregate dispersed information from thousands of participants, often pricing outcomes more efficiently than static sportsbook lines. For this chess event, monitor both venues to spot arbitrage opportunities or validate your thesis against professional oddsmakers' views.

On Kalshi, this event is priced as a binary or multi-outcome contract reflecting the probability that specific players finish in the top 5 by FIDE rating in July 2026. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy and sell shares at prices between 0 and 100 cents, with the implied probability derived from the current market price. As new tournament results emerge and rating lists update, prices adjust to reflect fresh information. The platform's order book shows real-time supply and demand, allowing you to execute at market or place limit orders.

The market resolves on Jul 31, 2026, after the official FIDE rating list for July 2026 is published. The outcome is determined by the final FIDE ratings on that date, which identify the top 5 rated players globally. Resolution depends on the official FIDE ranking snapshot and does not account for subsequent rating changes or tournaments after the cutoff. Traders should monitor FIDE's official website for rating publication schedules and any delays that might affect resolution timing.

Major tournaments leading up to July 2026 will be the primary catalysts, especially the World Chess Championship, Candidates Tournament, and elite opens where top players compete. Individual player performances, draws, and upsets directly impact rating changes. Injuries, withdrawals, or unexpected retirements could shift the top 5 composition. FIDE rating updates, typically released monthly, will provide concrete data that traders use to reprice outcomes. Geopolitical events or sanctions affecting player participation may also influence who qualifies for the top tier by July.