TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Arjun Erigaisi
- Kalshi
Arjun Erigaisi - Kalshi
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 1, 2026
Closed: Sep 1, 10:37 AM EST
Kalshi
The event tracks whether specific elite chess players achieve a top 10 ranking in the official FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List for September 2026. Rankings are determined by Elo ratings, with tiebreakers applied for equal scores.
If Magnus Carlsen is rated top 10 on the September 2026 FIDE World Top Players (top 100 players) Standard Rating List, then the market resolves to Yes. If Hikaru Nakamura is rated top 10 on the September 2026 FIDE World Top Players (top 100 players) Standard Rating List, then the market resolves to Yes. If Fabiano Caruana is rated top 10 on the September 2026 FIDE World Top Players (top 100 players) Standard Rating List, then the market resolves to Yes. If Nodirbek Abdusattorov is rated top 10 on the September 2026 FIDE World Top Players (top 100 players) Standard Rating List, then the market resolves to Yes. If Vincent Keymer is rated top 10 on the September 2026 FIDE World Top Players (top 100 players) Standard Rating List, then the market resolves to Yes. If Alireza Firouzja is rated top 10 on the September 2026 FIDE World Top Players (top 100 players) Standard Rating List, then the market resolves to Yes. If Wesley So is rated top 10 on the September 2026 FIDE World Top Players (top 100 players) Standard Rating List, then the market resolves to Yes. If Wei Yi is rated top 10 on the September 2026 FIDE World Top Players (top 100 players) Standard Rating List, then the market resolves to Yes. If Anish Giri is rated top 10 on the September 2026 FIDE World Top Players (top 100 players) Standard Rating List, then the market resolves to Yes. If Arjun Erigaisi is rated top 10 on the September 2026 FIDE World Top Players (top 100 players) Standard Rating List, then the market resolves to Yes. If Javokhir Sindarov is rated top 10 on the September 2026 FIDE World Top Players (top 100 players) Standard Rating List, then the market resolves to Yes. If Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa is rated top 10 on the September 2026 FIDE World Top Players (top 100 players) Standard Rating List, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jan-Krzysztof Duda is rated top 10 on the September 2026 FIDE World Top Players (top 100 players) Standard Rating List, then the market resolves to Yes. If Gukesh Dommaraju is rated top 10 on the September 2026 FIDE World Top Players (top 100 players) Standard Rating List, then the market resolves to Yes. If Viswanathan Anand is rated top 10 on the September 2026 FIDE World Top Players (top 100 players) Standard Rating List, then the market resolves to Yes. If Liren Ding is rated top 10 on the September 2026 FIDE World Top Players (top 100 players) Standard Rating List, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jorden Van Foreest is rated top 10 on the September 2026 FIDE World Top Players (top 100 players) Standard Rating List, then the market resolves to Yes. If Leinier Domínguez Pérez is rated top 10 on the September 2026 FIDE World Top Players (top 100 players) Standard Rating List, then the market resolves to Yes. If Hans Moke Niemann is rated top 10 on the September 2026 FIDE World Top Players (top 100 players) Standard Rating List, then the market resolves to Yes. If Le Quang Liem is rated top 10 on the September 2026 FIDE World Top Players (top 100 players) Standard Rating List, then the market resolves to Yes.
On Kalshi, this market reflects trader sentiment rather than traditional sportsbook lines. Prediction markets often price in nuanced factors like player form and tournament dynamics that sportsbooks may simplify. The spread between this market and sportsbook odds can vary widely, especially as new chess events or rating updates emerge. Traders watch both sources to spot potential value shifts, though each market serves a different audience and purpose.
This market resolves around Sep 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official FIDE ratings for September 2026 are published and independently verifiable from credible public sources. The final ranking will decide which players make the top 10, closing all positions at that time.
Several signals could shift this market before Sep 30, 2026. Strong performances in major tournaments, rating changes from FIDE updates, or surprise retirements could all reshape trader expectations. Media coverage highlighting contender rivalries and analyst rankings may also drive volume spikes. As the September 2026 rating deadline approaches, any event that alters the competitive landscape for top players will likely move odds on this market.