TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 3, 4:31 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks the exact final set score of the Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Michael Zheng first-round match at the 2026 Wimbledon Men's Singles tournament on July 3. Bettors predict the precise outcome, such as 3-0, 3-1, 3-2, or a reverse scoreline.
The market resolves based on the exact set score by which the match concludes between Felix Auger-Aliassime and Michael Zheng in the 2026 Wimbledon Men Singles Round Of 32. Possible outcomes include either player winning 3-0, 3-1, or 3-2. If the match does not occur before play begins due to injury, walkover, forfeiture, or cancellation, the market resolves to a fair price. If the match is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled match concludes within two weeks. If a player retires, markets that can be unconditionally settled based on completed play resolve accordingly; those that cannot are settled at Fair Market Price as determined by the Exchange.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different liquidity pools and trader bases. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and manage risk, while prediction markets like this one aggregate the collective belief of independent traders who profit or lose based on accuracy. This market's odds may lead or lag sportsbook lines depending on information flow and trader conviction. Comparing the two can reveal whether professional oddsmakers or the broader prediction market crowd is more bullish on a particular outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders submit bids and asks for each exact-score outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each contract reflects the probability traders assign to that specific final score, ranging from 0 to 100 cents. As new trades execute, prices update in real time, and the most-traded outcomes typically command higher prices. Liquidity and trading volume determine how easily you can enter or exit a position at any given price level.
This market resolves around Jul 3, 2026, once the Auger-Aliassime vs Zheng match concludes and the final set-by-set score is verified against credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the exact score as officially recorded, with no ambiguity over partial or incomplete matches. Traders holding shares in the correct final score receive their payout, while all other positions expire worthless. Resolution typically occurs within hours of match completion.
Several catalysts can shift odds in this market before Jul 3, 2026. Recent tournament results, head-to-head records, and player ranking changes influence baseline expectations. Injury announcements or withdrawal news can trigger sharp repricing. Court surface, weather conditions, and tournament draw position also matter in tennis. Closer to match day, warm-up tournament results and player statements may sway trader sentiment. During the match itself, live action—early set outcomes, momentum shifts, and injury timeouts—can cause rapid price swings as bettors adjust their conviction in each possible final score.