TOTAL VOLUME:

$124b

24H VOL:

$82,345,145

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,121,338,658

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,285,568,173

364,467

Markets across

33,191

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,073

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

41%

VS.

Kalshi:

59%

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Fed rate hike by...?
kalshi
predict
polymarket

Fed rate hike by...?

Total volume:
$2,943,505
Volume 24h:
$47,510
424%
Liquidity:
$122,586
51%
Open interest:
$405
0%

October Meeting

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 5, 2026

Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?

67%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 68¢ buys you 147 shares | Odds: 67% Total Payout: $147 | Net Profit: $47 Multiplier: 1.47x | ROI: 47% | APY: 378% 89 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

October Meeting

Trade
67%
3%
Yes 68¢No 34¢
2¢
$48,511
$639,782
2%
11%
N/A
2mo 4w 1d
active
predict

October Meeting

Trade
65%
Yes 66¢No 36¢
2¢
$3,313
$3
0%
0%
N/A
1mo 3w 4d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
66%
Yes 67¢No 35¢
Avg: 2¢Max: 2¢
polymarket

September Meeting

Trade
54%
1%
Yes 54¢No 47¢
1¢
$68,153
$1,337,363
2%
13%
N/A
2mo 4w 1d
active
predict

September Meeting

Trade
35%
11%
Yes 55¢No 86¢
41¢
$2,609
$5,953
0%
17%
N/A
1mo 3w 4d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
44.5%
Yes 54.5¢No 66.5¢
Avg: 21¢Max: 41¢
polymarket

July Meeting

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$782,907
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

April Meeting

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$131,308
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

June Meeting

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$45,785
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 4w 1d
No
kalshi

Above 3.65%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$405
N/A
N/A
$405
Settled
No
Total markets: 8

Intro

This market tracks the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike by the October 2026 FOMC meeting, aggregating views from Kalshi, Predict, and Polymarket. Currently, the consensus probability of a rate hike by that meeting is 65.0%. A secondary outcome, a rate hike by the September 2026 meeting, is priced at 53.5%. Resolution will be determined by the Official Federal Reserve website (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm) or consensus of credible reporting. Market participants should watch the December 16, 2025, FOMC meeting as the starting point for potential rate adjustments considered in this market.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms use identical criteria for determining a rate hike, including the same time window, qualifying events, and resolution sources.Primary resolution logic: Official Federal Reserve website (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm) or consensus of credible reporting

Core resolution logic:

  • Market resolves to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased between December 16, 2025, and the completion of the listed FOMC meeting
  • Emergency rate hikes qualify
  • If the meeting does not occur within 7 calendar days of its scheduled end date and no qualifying hike has been announced, the market resolves to “No”

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Emergency Rate Hike: Any unscheduled rate hike that occurs between December 16, 2025, and the listed meeting's completion date will qualify, even if it is not announced at an FOMC meeting
  • Missed Meeting: If the FOMC meeting is not held within 7 calendar days of its scheduled end date and no rate hike has occurred, the market resolves to “No”
Timing: Resolution occurs after the completion of the listed FOMC meeting or by December 31, 2026, if the meeting is missedOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for August 19, 2026 is above 3.65%, then the market resolves to Yes.

Predict

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Fed rate hike market aggregates activity across multiple venues, showing real-time probabilities and volume. It displays how traders on different platforms price the likelihood of a rate increase, offering a consensus view of market expectations. With current volume at $2,943,477, the dashboard helps users compare sentiment and spot trends as the event approaches.

On Polymarket, this market currently implies a 67.0% probability of a rate hike, reflecting trader sentiment. That view can diverge from traditional analyst forecasts, which may assign higher or lower odds based on economic models, recent data releases, and forward-looking statements from Fed officials. Comparing both sources offers a balanced perspective on market and institutional expectations.

This market resolves around Dec 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Traders will watch official Fed announcements and economic data releases to gauge the direction of monetary policy, as these factors directly influence the probability of a rate move.

Key signals include Federal Open Market Committee statements, employment reports, inflation data, and broader economic indicators released before Dec 9, 2026. Unexpected policy shifts or global economic events may also sway expectations. As the resolution date approaches, trader focus will intensify on any data suggesting a shift in monetary policy direction. These inputs collectively drive updates to the probability outlook, shaping how this market evolves until it settles.