TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for February 2026 will meet various threshold conditions. Both platforms reference the same official data source (BLS Employment Situation Report) and the same metric (U-3), but differ significantly in how they structure their resolution criteria.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use incompatible market structures for the same underlying data. Kalshi deploys threshold-based binary markets (10 separate 'above X%' conditions), while Polymarket uses exact-value and range-based discrete outcome markets (8 separate questions). Both reference the identical BLS U-3 data source and release schedule, but the logical architecture of resolution differs fundamentally.Hero Tip:
Understand your platform's payout logic before trading. On Kalshi, if U-3 = 4.5%, all 10 markets resolve YES (because 4.5 > 3.8, 4.5 > 3.9, ... 4.5 > 4.4). On Polymarket, only the '4.5%' exact-value market and the '≥4.6%' range market (if applicable) resolve YES. These are not hedges; they are different instruments. Use Kalshi for directional bets on unemployment thresholds, and Polymarket for precise-outcome predictions.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Threshold-based architecture with 10 overlapping YES/NO markets. Each market resolves YES if the seasonally adjusted U-3 rate reported by BLS in the February 2026 Employment Situation Report exceeds a specific threshold (3.8%, 3.9%, 4.0%, 4.1%, 4.2%, 4.3%, 4.4%, 4.5%, 4.6%, 4.7%). Multiple markets can resolve YES simultaneously. Key quote: 'If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above [threshold]% in February 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
Discrete outcome architecture with 8 separate markets asking exact-value or range questions. Markets ask 'Will the rate be 4.4%?', 'Will it be 4.2%?', 'Will it be ≤4.0%?', 'Will it be ≥4.6%?', etc. Only one exact-value market can resolve YES per outcome; range markets are mutually exclusive or complementary. Key quote: 'This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for February 2026... reported to one decimal point.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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