TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$87,997,338

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,395,155,069

395,664

Markets across

30,076

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,626

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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February Unemployment Rate
kalshi
polymarket

February Unemployment Rate

Volume:
$518,107

Above 4.2%

 - Kalshi

Above 4.2% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 6, 2026

Closed: Mar 6, 9:56 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 4.2%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$140,634
N/A
N/A
$89,496
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 4.1%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$99,512
N/A
N/A
$87,146
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 4.3%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$31,752
N/A
N/A
$16,431
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 4.0%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$31,499
N/A
N/A
$29,753
Settled
Yes
polymarket

4.4%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$21,186
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 3.8%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$14,206
N/A
N/A
$14,198
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 3.9%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10,947
N/A
N/A
$10,928
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 4.4%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$65,129
N/A
N/A
$42,314
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 4.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$23,549
N/A
N/A
$18,504
Settled
No
polymarket

4.3%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,057
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 4.6%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,811
N/A
N/A
$12,955
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 4.7%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,181
N/A
N/A
$11,036
Settled
No
polymarket

≥4.6%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,969
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

4.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,336
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

4.2%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,649
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

≤4.0%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,352
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

4.1%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,338
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 17

Description

This event group tracks whether the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for February 2026 will meet various threshold conditions. Both platforms reference the same official data source (BLS Employment Situation Report) and the same metric (U-3), but differ significantly in how they structure their resolution criteria.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket use incompatible market structures for the same underlying data. Kalshi deploys threshold-based binary markets (10 separate 'above X%' conditions), while Polymarket uses exact-value and range-based discrete outcome markets (8 separate questions). Both reference the identical BLS U-3 data source and release schedule, but the logical architecture of resolution differs fundamentally.Hero tip: Understand your platform's payout logic before trading. On Kalshi, if U-3 = 4.5%, all 10 markets resolve YES (because 4.5 > 3.8, 4.5 > 3.9, ... 4.5 > 4.4). On Polymarket, only the '4.5%' exact-value market and the '≥4.6%' range market (if applicable) resolve YES. These are not hedges; they are different instruments. Use Kalshi for directional bets on unemployment thresholds, and Polymarket for precise-outcome predictions.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Threshold-based architecture with 10 overlapping YES/NO markets. Each market resolves YES if the seasonally adjusted U-3 rate reported by BLS in the February 2026 Employment Situation Report exceeds a specific threshold (3.8%, 3.9%, 4.0%, 4.1%, 4.2%, 4.3%, 4.4%, 4.5%, 4.6%, 4.7%). Multiple markets can resolve YES simultaneously. Key quote: 'If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above [threshold]% in February 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Discrete outcome architecture with 8 separate markets asking exact-value or range questions. Markets ask 'Will the rate be 4.4%?', 'Will it be 4.2%?', 'Will it be ≤4.0%?', 'Will it be ≥4.6%?', etc. Only one exact-value market can resolve YES per outcome; range markets are mutually exclusive or complementary. Key quote: 'This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for February 2026... reported to one decimal point.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.