TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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February Inflation US - Monthly
polymarket
kalshi

February Inflation US - Monthly

Volume:
$257,438

Exactly 0.3%

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 11, 2026

Closed: Mar 11, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Exactly 0.3%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,226
N/A
N/A
$4,856
Settled
Yes
polymarket

0.3%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$66,177
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

≤0.0%

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$63,696
$46,395
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

0.2%

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$50,353
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 0.2%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,290
N/A
N/A
$6,204
Settled
No
polymarket

0.1%

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$35,621
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 0.1%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,654
N/A
N/A
$7,561
Settled
No
polymarket

≥0.4%

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$34,824
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly -0.2%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$740
N/A
N/A
$727
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 0.4%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$655
N/A
N/A
$650
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly -0.1%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$235
N/A
N/A
$235
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 0.0%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$164
N/A
N/A
$164
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 0.6%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$54
N/A
N/A
$54
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 0.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
No
Total markets: 14

Description

This event group tracks the month-over-month change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) for February 2026, as published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Both platforms resolve based on the official BLS CPI report scheduled for release on March 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET, with precision to one decimal point (e.g., 0.4%).

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket uses threshold-based (greater-than-or-equal) binary questions while Kalshi uses exact-value binary outcomes. Both resolve from the same official BLS CPI-U data, but market winners differ based on the underlying CPI result.Hero tip: Polymarket markets can have multiple simultaneous winners depending on the CPI result; Kalshi markets are mutually exclusive (exactly one winner per release). Cross-platform arbitrage is possible but requires careful threshold mapping. Example: if CPI is 0.3%, Polymarket's 0.2% and 0.0%-or-less markets both resolve YES, but Kalshi's 0.3% market is the only winner.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Six binary threshold-based markets asking whether CPI-U month-over-month will be at or above specific levels (0.2%, 0.0% or less, 0.1%, 0.4% or more, 0.3%). Resolution uses one-decimal-point precision from official BLS report. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in February 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.'
  • Kalshi: Nine binary exact-match markets, each resolving YES only if CPI-U month-over-month equals a specific value (-0.2%, 0.0%, -0.1%, 0.1%, 0.2%, 0.3%, 0.4%, 0.5%, 0.6%). Key Quote: 'If the CPI month-over-month is exactly 0.3% in Feb 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.