TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
February Inflation US - Monthly
Volume:
$257,438
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks the month-over-month change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) for February 2026, as published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Both platforms resolve based on the official BLS CPI report scheduled for release on March 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET, with precision to one decimal point (e.g., 0.4%).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket uses threshold-based (greater-than-or-equal) binary questions while Kalshi uses exact-value binary outcomes. Both resolve from the same official BLS CPI-U data, but market winners differ based on the underlying CPI result.Hero Tip:
Polymarket markets can have multiple simultaneous winners depending on the CPI result; Kalshi markets are mutually exclusive (exactly one winner per release). Cross-platform arbitrage is possible but requires careful threshold mapping. Example: if CPI is 0.3%, Polymarket's 0.2% and 0.0%-or-less markets both resolve YES, but Kalshi's 0.3% market is the only winner.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Six binary threshold-based markets asking whether CPI-U month-over-month will be at or above specific levels (0.2%, 0.0% or less, 0.1%, 0.4% or more, 0.3%). Resolution uses one-decimal-point precision from official BLS report. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in February 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.'
- Kalshi: Nine binary exact-match markets, each resolving YES only if CPI-U month-over-month equals a specific value (-0.2%, 0.0%, -0.1%, 0.1%, 0.2%, 0.3%, 0.4%, 0.5%, 0.6%). Key Quote: 'If the CPI month-over-month is exactly 0.3% in Feb 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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