TOTAL VOLUME:

$101.9b

24H VOL:

$118,533,487

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,024,173,950

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,179,969,629

186,965

Markets across

18,889

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

1,278

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

44%

VS.

Kalshi:

56%

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February Inflation US - Monthly
Economics
polymarket
kalshi

February Inflation US - Monthly

Volume:
$257,438
PredictionHero
Exactly 0.3% 100%
kalshi
0.3% 100%
polymarket
≤0.0% 0.05%
polymarket
Feb 2026Feb 2026Feb 2026Feb 2026Feb 2026Feb 2026Feb 2026Feb 2026Feb 2026Mar 2026Mar 2026Mar 2026Mar 2026Mar 2026Mar 2026020406080

Closed: Mar 11, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Description

This event group tracks the month-over-month change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) for February 2026, as published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Both platforms resolve based on the official BLS CPI report scheduled for release on March 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET, with precision to one decimal point (e.g., 0.4%).

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket uses threshold-based (greater-than-or-equal) binary questions while Kalshi uses exact-value binary outcomes. Both resolve from the same official BLS CPI-U data, but market winners differ based on the underlying CPI result.Hero tip: Polymarket markets can have multiple simultaneous winners depending on the CPI result; Kalshi markets are mutually exclusive (exactly one winner per release). Cross-platform arbitrage is possible but requires careful threshold mapping. Example: if CPI is 0.3%, Polymarket's 0.2% and 0.0%-or-less markets both resolve YES, but Kalshi's 0.3% market is the only winner.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Six binary threshold-based markets asking whether CPI-U month-over-month will be at or above specific levels (0.2%, 0.0% or less, 0.1%, 0.4% or more, 0.3%). Resolution uses one-decimal-point precision from official BLS report. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in February 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.'
  • Kalshi: Nine binary exact-match markets, each resolving YES only if CPI-U month-over-month equals a specific value (-0.2%, 0.0%, -0.1%, 0.1%, 0.2%, 0.3%, 0.4%, 0.5%, 0.6%). Key Quote: 'If the CPI month-over-month is exactly 0.3% in Feb 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.22.3PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.