TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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February Inflation US - Annual
polymarket
kalshi

February Inflation US - Annual

Volume:
$1,319,509

Above 2.3%

 - Kalshi

Above 2.3% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 11, 2026

Closed: Mar 11, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 2.3%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$186,419
N/A
N/A
$77,707
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 2.2%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$112,332
N/A
N/A
$40,757
Settled
Yes
polymarket

2.4%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$74,881
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 2.4%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$175,590
N/A
N/A
$85,297
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 2.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$134,825
N/A
N/A
$92,334
Settled
No
polymarket

≤2.1%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$121,770
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

≥2.7%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$85,998
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

2.2%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$81,361
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

2.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$77,739
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 2.6%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$67,549
N/A
N/A
$36,305
Settled
No
polymarket

2.3%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$66,893
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

2.6%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$64,122
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 2.7%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$38,115
N/A
N/A
$23,389
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 2.9%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,340
N/A
N/A
$12,318
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 3.0%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,680
N/A
N/A
$8,619
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 3.1%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,030
N/A
N/A
$4,078
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 2.8%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,864
N/A
N/A
$3,426
Settled
No
Total markets: 17

Description

This event group tracks whether annual US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation for the 12-month period ending February 2026 will fall within or exceed specific percentage thresholds. Both Polymarket and Kalshi are pricing binary outcomes tied to the official Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly CPI release scheduled for March 11, 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms use identical resolution source (BLS CPI report for February 2026), identical measurement period (12 months ending February 2026), identical precision standard (one decimal place), and identical fallback logic for delayed releases.Primary resolution logic: Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index monthly news release for February 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), scheduled release March 11, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution value is the 12-month percentage change in CPI ending February 2026, reported to one decimal place by the BLS
  • Polymarket markets resolve YES if the reported inflation rate meets or falls within the specified threshold (e.g., ≤2.1%, =2.3%, ≥2.7%)
  • Kalshi markets resolve YES if the reported inflation rate exceeds the specified threshold (e.g., >2.5%, >3.1%)
  • All markets use the official BLS one-decimal-place precision; no rounding or alternative calculations apply
  • If BLS does not release on March 11, 2026, markets remain open until the next scheduled CPI report release date; if still unavailable, resolution uses the most recent previous month with available data

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Delayed BLS Release: If the February 2026 CPI report is not released on March 11, 2026, markets remain open until the next scheduled BLS CPI release. If data is not available by that subsequent release date, markets resolve using the most recent previous month with available CPI data.
  • Precision and Rounding: Resolution uses only the one-decimal-place value reported by the BLS (e.g., 2.9%). No rounding, truncation, or alternative precision standards apply. The BLS-reported figure is the sole authoritative resolution value.
  • Threshold Interpretation: Polymarket uses inclusive thresholds (≤, =, ≥) while Kalshi uses exclusive thresholds (>). For example, if CPI is 2.5%, Polymarket markets asking '≤2.5%' resolve YES, while Kalshi markets asking '>2.5%' resolve NO. Both interpretations are mathematically consistent with their respective rule sets.
Timing: Resolution occurs upon release of the BLS Consumer Price Index report for February 2026, scheduled for March 11, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. If delayed, resolution uses the next available BLS CPI report or the most recent previous month with available data.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.