TOTAL VOLUME:

$101.9b

24H VOL:

$118,533,487

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,024,173,950

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,179,969,629

186,965

Markets across

18,889

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

1,278

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

44%

VS.

Kalshi:

56%

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February Inflation US - Annual
Economics
polymarket
kalshi

February Inflation US - Annual

Volume:
$1,319,509
PredictionHero
Above 2.3% 100%
kalshi
Above 2.2% 100%
kalshi
2.4% 100%
polymarket
Feb 2026Feb 2026Feb 2026Feb 2026Feb 2026Feb 2026Feb 2026Feb 2026Feb 2026Mar 2026Mar 2026Mar 2026Mar 2026Mar 2026Jul 2…020406080100

Closed: Mar 11, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Description

This event group tracks whether annual US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation for the 12-month period ending February 2026 will fall within or exceed specific percentage thresholds. Both Polymarket and Kalshi are pricing binary outcomes tied to the official Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly CPI release scheduled for March 11, 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms use identical resolution source (BLS CPI report for February 2026), identical measurement period (12 months ending February 2026), identical precision standard (one decimal place), and identical fallback logic for delayed releases.Primary resolution logic: Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index monthly news release for February 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), scheduled release March 11, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution value is the 12-month percentage change in CPI ending February 2026, reported to one decimal place by the BLS
  • Polymarket markets resolve YES if the reported inflation rate meets or falls within the specified threshold (e.g., ≤2.1%, =2.3%, ≥2.7%)
  • Kalshi markets resolve YES if the reported inflation rate exceeds the specified threshold (e.g., >2.5%, >3.1%)
  • All markets use the official BLS one-decimal-place precision; no rounding or alternative calculations apply
  • If BLS does not release on March 11, 2026, markets remain open until the next scheduled CPI report release date; if still unavailable, resolution uses the most recent previous month with available data

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Delayed BLS Release: If the February 2026 CPI report is not released on March 11, 2026, markets remain open until the next scheduled BLS CPI release. If data is not available by that subsequent release date, markets resolve using the most recent previous month with available CPI data.
  • Precision and Rounding: Resolution uses only the one-decimal-place value reported by the BLS (e.g., 2.9%). No rounding, truncation, or alternative precision standards apply. The BLS-reported figure is the sole authoritative resolution value.
  • Threshold Interpretation: Polymarket uses inclusive thresholds (≤, =, ≥) while Kalshi uses exclusive thresholds (>). For example, if CPI is 2.5%, Polymarket markets asking '≤2.5%' resolve YES, while Kalshi markets asking '>2.5%' resolve NO. Both interpretations are mathematically consistent with their respective rule sets.
Timing: Resolution occurs upon release of the BLS Consumer Price Index report for February 2026, scheduled for March 11, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. If delayed, resolution uses the next available BLS CPI report or the most recent previous month with available data.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.22.3PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.