February Inflation US - Annual

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Core resolution logic:

• Resolution value is the 12-month percentage change in CPI ending February 2026, reported to one decimal place by the BLS
• Polymarket markets resolve YES if the reported inflation rate meets or falls within the specified threshold (e.g., ≤2.1%, =2.3%, ≥2.7%)
• Kalshi markets resolve YES if the reported inflation rate exceeds the specified threshold (e.g., >2.5%, >3.1%)
• All markets use the official BLS one-decimal-place precision; no rounding or alternative calculations apply
• If BLS does not release on March 11, 2026, markets remain open until the next scheduled CPI report release date; if still unavailable, resolution uses the most recent previous month with available data

Edge cases & Clarifications:

• Delayed BLS Release: If the February 2026 CPI report is not released on March 11, 2026, markets remain open until the next scheduled BLS CPI release. If data is not available by that subsequent release date, markets resolve using the most recent previous month with available CPI data.
• Precision and Rounding: Resolution uses only the one-decimal-place value reported by the BLS (e.g., 2.9%). No rounding, truncation, or alternative precision standards apply. The BLS-reported figure is the sole authoritative resolution value.
• Threshold Interpretation: Polymarket uses inclusive thresholds (≤, =, ≥) while Kalshi uses exclusive thresholds (>). For example, if CPI is 2.5%, Polymarket markets asking '≤2.5%' resolve YES, while Kalshi markets asking '>2.5%' resolve NO. Both interpretations are mathematically consistent with their respective rule sets.