Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All platforms resolve based on the official match outcome within 90 minutes plus stoppage time on April 17, 2026, with identical handling of postponements and cancellations across Polymarket and Kalshi.
Primary resolution logic:
Official Bundesliga statistics as recognized by the governing body or event organizers; if unavailable within 2 hours post-match, credible reporting consensus may be used.
Core resolution logic:
The match outcome is determined by the result after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time only, excluding extra time and penalties.
Three mutually exclusive outcomes exist: St. Pauli win, Köln win, or draw.
Polymarket Draw market resolves YES if the match ends in a draw, NO otherwise.
Polymarket St. Pauli Win market resolves YES if St. Pauli wins, NO otherwise.
Polymarket Köln Win market resolves YES if Köln wins, NO otherwise.
Kalshi markets resolve YES for any of the three outcomes (St. Pauli win, Köln win, or draw) depending on which occurs.
If the match is postponed, all markets remain open until the match is completed.
If the match is canceled with no make-up game, Polymarket Draw resolves YES and both Polymarket win markets resolve NO; Kalshi markets do not resolve (cancellation is not a match outcome).
Edge cases & Clarifications:
Match Postponement: If the match is postponed, all markets on both platforms remain open and unresolved until the rescheduled match is completed. Resolution occurs based on the final outcome of the completed match.
Match Cancellation Without Makeup: On Polymarket, if the match is canceled entirely with no make-up game, the Draw market resolves YES and both Win markets resolve NO. Kalshi does not explicitly address cancellation; this represents a minor edge case but does not create trading divergence since cancellation is an unlikely scenario.
Resolution Source Fallback: If official Bundesliga statistics are not published within 2 hours after match conclusion, both platforms permit resolution based on consensus of credible reporting sources.
Timing:
Resolution occurs upon official publication of the final match result by Bundesliga or event organizers, or within 2 hours post-match via credible reporting consensus if official statistics are delayed.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.