TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
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FC Porto
all
2 markets
Polymarket
Limitless
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 4, 2026
Closed: Sep 4, 7:18 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks the outcome of a Liga Portugal football match between FC Porto and Moreirense FC, scheduled for September 4, 2026, asking which team will win. Currently, the consensus probability of FC Porto winning is 100.0%, while Moreirense FC winning has a probability of 0.1%. This aggregated view combines data from Limitless, Polymarket, and Kalshi, with resolution based on the official results reported at https://www.ligaportugal.pt/. Keep an eye on the match outcome itself on September 4, 2026, as that will determine final settlement.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Cancellation handling differs between platforms, specifically regarding the draw market. Polymarket resolves cancelled games to 'No' for the draw market, while Limitless resolves to 'Yes'.Hero tip: Consider the cancellation risk when trading the draw market. A cancelled match will have opposite outcomes on Polymarket and Limitless.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". Draw market resolves to 'Yes' if the game ends in a draw.
- Limitless: If the match is not completed...and no make-up match is scheduled, this market will resolve "YES" for the draw market.
Polymarket
This event is for the upcoming Primeira Liga game, scheduled for Friday, September 4, 2026 between FC Porto and Moreirense FC.
Kalshi
If Porto and Moreirense both score a goal in the Porto vs Moreirense Liga Portugal match originally scheduled for Sep 4, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Limitless
This market resolves to "YES" if the listed club wins after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalty shootouts, in the match scheduled for September 4, 2026, 19:15 UTC. Otherwise, it will resolve to "NO." If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed. If the match is not completed as scheduled for any reason (for example, if it is abandoned, canceled, or awarded), and an official final result is recognized by the governing body or event organizers, this market will resolve based on that result. If no official final result is recognized and no make-up match is scheduled, this market will resolve "NO." Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Frequently asked questions
Differences in prices between Polymarket and Limitless for the FC Porto vs. Moreirense match can arise from several factors. Polymarket and Limitless can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying levels of expertise and access to information, leading to differing opinions. Trading volume also plays a role; a higher volume on one platform can indicate greater confidence in a particular outcome. Additionally, the specific mechanisms for trading and order execution on each platform can influence price discovery, resulting in temporary or sustained price discrepancies. These differences are normal and contribute to the overall market efficiency.
Several signals could significantly impact this market before its resolution. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either FC Porto or Moreirense FC would likely cause price movement. Changes in team form, such as unexpected wins or losses in preceding matches, could also shift trader sentiment. Even broader factors, like weather conditions expected on match day, or tactical announcements from the managers, could influence the perceived probabilities. Monitoring these events will be crucial for anyone looking to trade in this market.
