TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$244,265,276
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,349,697,137
578,254
Markets across
14,382
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,099
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the professional Liga Portugal soccer match between FC Porto and Moreirense FC scheduled for March 15, 2026. Markets across Polymarket and Kalshi assess the outcome after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, with resolution tied to official Liga Portugal statistics.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket uses mutually exclusive binary markets (exactly one resolves Yes), while Kalshi uses independent outcome-specific Yes/No markets. Both reference the same match and resolution source, but the market structure creates incompatible settlement logic.Hero Tip:
Understand that Polymarket and Kalshi are offering different product structures for the same event. On Polymarket, you are betting on which single outcome occurs. On Kalshi, you are betting on whether a specific outcome occurs (with the logical constraint that only one can actually happen). Cross-platform arbitrage is not possible due to structural differences, not resolution differences.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Three mutually exclusive binary markets. Exactly one market (Porto Win, Moreirense Win, or Draw) will resolve Yes; the other two resolve No. Resolution source: official Liga Portugal statistics within 2 hours of match conclusion, or credible reporting consensus if official stats delayed. Scope: 90 minutes plus stoppage time only.Kalshi:
Three independent Yes/No markets, each tied to a specific outcome. Each market independently resolves Yes if that outcome occurs. Implicitly uses same resolution source (Liga Portugal official statistics) and scope (90 minutes plus stoppage time). No explicit fallback source stated.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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