TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$217,487,446
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,300,303,450
498,643
Markets across
13,761
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,763
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
FC Metz vs. Toulouse FC
Volume:
$559,230
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a Ligue 1 soccer match between FC Metz (home) and Toulouse FC (away) scheduled for March 15, 2026. Markets span multiple platforms with varying resolution criteria: Kalshi focuses on goal-differential thresholds (>1.5 and >2.5 goals), while Polymarket offers three binary outcomes (Metz win, draw, Toulouse win).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi uses goal-differential thresholds (>1.5 and >2.5 goals) as settlement criteria, while Polymarket uses standard three-way match outcomes (win/draw/loss). These are orthogonal market types with different settlement triggers. Additionally, Polymarket's draw market contains a non-standard cancellation clause (resolves YES if canceled).Hero Tip:
Do not assume Kalshi and Polymarket markets are correlated. A 1-0 Metz win resolves YES on Polymarket Metz-win but NO on all four Kalshi markets. Kalshi markets require a margin of victory; Polymarket markets require only a winner. Separately, monitor Polymarket's draw-cancellation clause—if the match is postponed with no rescheduled date, the draw market resolves YES while win/loss markets remain open.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Four markets based on goal-differential thresholds. Resolves YES if either team wins by more than 1.5 goals OR more than 2.5 goals. Key Quote: 'If Toulouse wins by more than 1.5 goals in the Toulouse at Metz professional Ligue 1 soccer game originally scheduled for Mar 15, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Three separate binary markets: Metz win (YES if Metz wins, NO otherwise), Draw (YES if draw, NO otherwise, but YES if canceled), and Toulouse win (YES if Toulouse wins, NO otherwise). Standard match outcomes only. Key Quote: 'If FC Metz wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No.' and for draw: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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