TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the Ligue 1 soccer match between FC Metz and Stade Brestois 29 scheduled for March 1, 2026. Markets span three outcome types: win/loss for each team and draw outcomes, plus goal-differential markets on the winning margin. The core question is which team wins in 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket's draw market has inverted cancellation logic compared to win/loss markets. Kalshi goal-differential markets lack explicit cancellation resolution rules, creating settlement ambiguity.Hero Tip:
Verify match status with Ligue1.com before March 1, 2026. If canceled with no makeup: Polymarket draw resolves YES, win/loss resolve NO. Kalshi goal-differential markets will likely void or default to NO. Consider this asymmetry when positioning across platforms.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Three separate binary markets: Stade Brestois 29 win (YES if win, NO otherwise), FC Metz win (YES if win, NO otherwise), and draw (YES if draw, NO otherwise). All three reference 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Cancellation logic diverges: win/loss markets resolve NO on full cancellation; draw market resolves YES on full cancellation. Key Quote: Draw market states 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve Yes' while win markets state 'this market will resolve No'.Kalshi:
Four goal-differential markets: Stade Brest wins by >2.5 goals, Stade Brest wins by >1.5 goals, Metz wins by >2.5 goals, Metz wins by >1.5 goals. All reference 90 minutes plus stoppage time and exclude extra time/penalties. No explicit cancellation or postponement clause provided. Markets resolve YES only if the specified goal-differential condition is met; no guidance on non-play scenarios.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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