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Closed: Aug 15, 8:15 AM EST
Kalshi
This event group concerns the first team to score in the FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds soccer match scheduled for August 23, 2026. The markets will resolve based on which team scores first within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, or if neither team scores.
In the upcoming match between FC Machida Zelvia and Urawa Red Diamonds, scheduled for August 23, 2026 at 6:30 AM ET: This market will resolve to "FC Machida Zelvia" if FC Machida Zelvia are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Urawa Red Diamonds" if Urawa Red Diamonds are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
The event determines the result of the Urawa vs Hiroshima professional Japan J1 League soccer match scheduled for August 15, 2026, based on the outcome after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. If Urawa wins, the 'Urawa' market resolves to Yes; if Hiroshima wins, the 'Hiroshima' market resolves to Yes; and if the match ends in a tie, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. All markets share a common secondary rule: if the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, the market will resolve to a fair price. The event exclusively considers the result within regular time, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
On Polymarket and Kalshi, prices can vary due to differences in user bases, liquidity, and trading mechanics. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For instance, one platform might attract more local fans or data-driven traders, skewing its odds toward a particular outcome. Additionally, each venue sets its own fee structure and order-book dynamics, which influences how prices discover consensus over time.
Injuries, weather updates, or tactical changes announced by coaches can shift this market close to kickoff. Key players being ruled out or lineup announcements may cause rapid re-pricing, especially on platforms with thinner order books. Any last-minute news that alters the perceived attacking strength of either side can push probabilities dramatically in the hours before the first whistle.