Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All three markets across Polymarket and Kalshi resolve based on the official match outcome after 90 minutes plus stoppage time on April 18, 2026, with identical handling of postponements and cancellations.
Primary resolution logic:
Official Ligue 1 statistics as recognized by the governing body or event organizers; if unavailable within 2 hours post-match, consensus of credible reporting.
Core resolution logic:
The draw market (Polymarket) resolves YES if the match ends in a draw after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, NO otherwise.
The Marseille win market (Polymarket) resolves YES if Olympique de Marseille wins after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, NO otherwise.
The Lorient win market (Polymarket) resolves YES if FC Lorient wins after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, NO otherwise.
The Kalshi market resolves YES for any outcome (tie, Lorient win, or Marseille win) after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
Exactly one of the three Polymarket binary outcomes will resolve YES; the Kalshi market will always resolve YES if the match is completed.
If the match is postponed, all markets remain open until completion.
If the match is canceled with no make-up game, the draw and individual win markets resolve NO on Polymarket; the Kalshi market resolves YES.
Edge cases & Clarifications:
Match Cancellation: If the match is canceled entirely with no rescheduled make-up game, Polymarket draw and win markets resolve NO, while Kalshi resolves YES. This creates a technical divergence in cancellation outcomes.
Postponement: If the match is postponed, all markets remain open and unresolved until the match is actually played and completed.
Resolution Timing: If official Ligue 1 statistics are not published within 2 hours after match conclusion, resolution defaults to consensus of credible reporting sources.
Timing:
Resolution occurs upon official announcement of the final match result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, or upon consensus reporting if official statistics are delayed beyond 2 hours post-match.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.