TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 12, 2:36 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional Bundesliga soccer match between FC Köln and Bremen. It focuses on the margin of victory for either team, with different thresholds defining a successful outcome. The result is determined based on the final score after regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates various goal-differential scenarios in the FC Köln vs Bremen Bundesliga match scheduled for September 12, 2026. Four distinct outcome thresholds are defined: FC Köln winning by more than 2.5 goals, FC Köln winning by more than 1.5 goals, Bremen winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Bremen winning by more than 2.5 goals. All resolutions are based solely on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with extra time and penalty outcomes excluded from consideration. The event operates independently of official league affiliations, using publicly available match results as the sole determinant of outcomes.
Typically, prediction market odds, like those for this market, reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their risk and ensure profit, while this market represents the aggregated beliefs of informed traders. This can lead to prediction market prices being more accurate, especially as the event approaches and more information becomes available. However, sportsbook odds are readily accessible and serve as a common benchmark for comparison, though discrepancies are frequently observed.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the outcome of the spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders can take either the 'buy' (yes) or 'sell' (no) side of the spread, and the price adjusts dynamically based on their actions. This creates a fluid and responsive market that incorporates new information quickly.
This market resolves around Sep 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final spread of the FC Köln vs Bremen match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the governing sports authority, ensuring an objective and transparent determination. Traders will then be paid out or have their positions adjusted based on whether their prediction aligned with the actual spread of the game.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Sep 12, 2026. News regarding player injuries or suspensions for either FC Köln or Bremen would likely have a significant impact. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about key personnel or significant shifts in public perception regarding the teams' chances could also drive price movement. Any information that alters the perceived probability of a particular spread outcome has the potential to move this market.