TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
FC Arouca vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica
Volume:
$419,569
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the Portuguese Liga Portugal match between FC Arouca (home) and Sport Lisboa e Benfica (away) scheduled for March 14, 2026. Three related markets track the outcome: Benfica win, Arouca win, and draw, all resolving based on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (regular play only).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Draw/Tie market resolution differs on game cancellation. Polymarket explicitly resolves the draw market to YES if the game is canceled with no makeup; Kalshi provides no cancellation clause for its tie outcome category.Hero Tip:
If the match is canceled with no reschedule, expect Polymarket's draw market to resolve YES while Kalshi's behavior remains ambiguous. Confirm Kalshi's cancellation policy with the platform before settlement. For normal match completion, all platforms align on 90-minute regular play outcome.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Three binary markets (Benfica win YES/NO, Arouca win YES/NO, Draw YES/NO). Draw market uniquely resolves YES on full cancellation with no makeup game; win markets resolve NO on cancellation. Postponed games remain open. Resolution source: Liga Portugal official statistics within 2 hours, or credible reporting consensus. Quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve Yes.'
- Kalshi: Three outcome categories (Arouca win, Benfica win, Tie) presented as separate YES-resolving conditions. No explicit cancellation or postponement clause provided. Implies standard league resolution practices but lacks clarity on makeup games or voids. Quote: 'If Tie wins the Arouca vs SL Benfica professional Liga Portugal soccer game originally scheduled for Mar 14, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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