TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Week 1 QB Points Leader
polymarket
kalshi

Who will lead in QB points in Week 1?

Volume:
$9,105

Josh Allen

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 15, 2026

Closed: Sep 14, 11:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Josh Allen

View
100%
68%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$514
N/A
N/A
$404
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Josh Allen

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Caleb Williams

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$414
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Caleb Williams

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$109
N/A
N/A
$109
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Trevor Lawrence

View
100%
19%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$397
N/A
N/A
$396
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Trevor Lawrence

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Jaxson Dart

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$110
N/A
N/A
$110
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Jaxson Dart

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Bryce Young

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$110
N/A
N/A
$110
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Bryce Young

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Jalen Hurts

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$876
N/A
N/A
$596
Settled
No
polymarket

Jalen Hurts

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Brock Purdy

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$853
N/A
N/A
$788
Settled
No
polymarket

Brock Purdy

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Lamar Jackson

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$811
N/A
N/A
$781
Settled
No
polymarket

Lamar Jackson

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Justin Herbert

View
0%
31%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$799
N/A
N/A
$269
Settled
No
polymarket

Justin Herbert

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tyler Shough

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$768
N/A
N/A
$496
Settled
No
polymarket

Tyler Shough

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tua Tagovailoa

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$702
N/A
N/A
$702
Settled
No
polymarket

Tua Tagovailoa

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Cooper Rush

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$309
N/A
N/A
$309
Settled
No
kalshi

Kyler Murray

View
0%
16%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$280
N/A
N/A
$260
Settled
No
polymarket

Kyler Murray

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 71

Description

This prediction group asks which quarterback will score the most fantasy points in Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL season, using ESPN's default fantasy scoring. Multiple markets exist across Polymarket and Kalshi, each offering a slightly different framing of the question.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi markets focus on a 'Top 5' finish, while Polymarket focuses on the outright highest scorer. This creates a fundamental difference in resolution criteria.Hero tip: Treat Kalshi markets as 'inclusion' probabilities (will this player be in the top 5?) and Polymarket as 'win' probabilities (will this player have the highest score?).

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to the single quarterback with the highest fantasy points in Week 1, with a tiebreaker based on last name. Includes an 'Other' option if the highest scorer is not listed.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if a listed quarterback finishes within the top 5 in Week 1 fantasy points. Each player has an individual market.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the quarterback that finishes Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season as the highest-scoring QB under the default scoring of ESPN Fantasy Sports. Only games designated by the NFL as Week 1 of the 2026-27 regular season count. If two or more players are tied for the most fantasy points in Week 1, this market will resolve in favor of the tied player whose last name comes first alphabetically. If the highest-scoring QB in Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season is not a listed player, this market will resolve to "Other". If Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed past September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or a leader cannot be determined within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source will be official Week 1 statistics as reported by ESPN Fantasy Sports (https://www.espn.com/fantasy/).

Kalshi

Each market resolves to Yes if the named quarterback finishes within the top five highest in total full-PPR fantasy points for all quarterbacks in Week 1 of the 2026 NFL regular season. Rankings are determined using Sleeper's official scoring system, which awards points for passing yards, touchdowns, interceptions, rushing and receiving yards and touchdowns, kicking field goals and extra points, and defensive/special teams performances including touchdowns, sacks, interceptions, fumble recoveries, and points allowed by the defense. Players who do not participate in the week receive zero points. If multiple players tie for the fifth position, contracts settle proportionally based on the number of tied players (e.g., two tied players each receive 0.5). All scoring details and tie-resolution mechanisms are consistently applied across all markets.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found for this market on Polymarket and Kalshi, often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while prediction markets allow anyone to trade on their beliefs, leading to dynamic price discovery. This can result in prediction market prices being more accurate, especially as more information becomes available and more traders participate. However, sportsbooks typically offer more extensive betting options and higher liquidity for mainstream events. The current volume on this market is $9,105.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying levels of expertise and information. Trading incentives, platform fees, and the specific mechanisms for creating and trading contracts can also contribute to price discrepancies. Furthermore, the volume traded on each platform – currently $9,105 – influences price stability and responsiveness to new information. It's also possible that differing interpretations of available data or varying risk appetites among traders on each platform lead to differing valuations for the same outcome in this market.

Numerous signals could significantly impact this market. Preseason performance, including training camp reports and exhibition games, will be closely watched. Any news regarding quarterback injuries, changes in offensive schemes, or key player acquisitions could cause substantial shifts in probabilities. Unexpected developments in team dynamics or coaching changes could also influence trader sentiment. Finally, late-breaking news about player health or game-day matchups leading up to Week 1 of the 2026-27 season will likely drive volatility in this market.