TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 15, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of two Scottish Premiership soccer teams in a head-to-head match. It evaluates different scenarios based on the margin of victory for either team. The outcome depends on how decisively one team wins over the other within the standard game timeframe.
The event evaluates various win-margin scenarios for the Falkirk vs Heart of Midlothian professional Scottish Premiership soccer match scheduled for September 15, 2026. Resolution occurs based on the goal differential after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. Four distinct outcomes are possible: Falkirk winning by more than 2.5 goals, Falkirk winning by more than 1.5 goals, Heart of Midlothian winning by more than 1.5 goals, or Heart of Midlothian winning by more than 2.5 goals. Each primary rule defines a specific threshold for victory margins that determine a 'Yes' resolution for its respective market. The rules explicitly state that Kalshi holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of informed traders, potentially differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and to balance action, while this market’s price is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook is mispricing an outcome, they can express that view by trading in this market, causing the price to move. It’s common to see discrepancies, particularly as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential outcomes. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information and their own analysis, leading to dynamic price fluctuations. The more a particular outcome is bought, the higher its price becomes, and vice versa. This creates a real-time assessment of probabilities.
This market resolves around Sep 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the result of the Scottish Premiership match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final score will be used to determine the winner of this market. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will be paid out according to the final price of their contracts at the time of resolution. It’s important to monitor news sources leading up to the resolution date to stay informed about any factors that could influence the result.
Several signals could significantly move this market before Sep 15, 2026. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Falkirk or Heart of Midlothian would likely impact trading activity. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments announced by the managers, or even weather conditions on match day could all influence traders’ perceptions of the likely outcome. Unexpected news related to team morale or off-field issues could also contribute to price movements in this market.