TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 18, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Taylor Swift's album evermore achieves streaming performance above a specific threshold during the July 10-16 tracking week. Streaming data is compiled by Luminate Data and published within approximately 48 hours after the week ends.
If evermore has above 15,752,029 Worldwide Streams during the July 10 - July 16, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they reflect real-money incentives and continuous price discovery rather than static published opinions. Traders in this market are betting directly on whether Evermore content arrives this week, creating dynamic odds that adjust as new information emerges. While entertainment analysts may issue periodic reports on release schedules, the market price incorporates live updates, fan sentiment, and industry signals in near-real time, sometimes leading prediction markets to move ahead of or contradict conventional forecasts.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders submit bids and asks on binary outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The platform converts these orders into implied probabilities, displayed as a percentage chance that Evermore will stream this week. As more traders buy or sell shares, the price adjusts in real time, reflecting the collective belief of the market. Kalshi's pricing model ensures transparent, market-driven odds that respond instantly to breaking news or schedule announcements.
This market resolves around Jul 20, 2026, at which point the outcome is confirmed based on verifiable public reporting. The resolution hinges on whether Evermore content officially streams on a major platform by the deadline. Once the event window closes, the outcome is determined against credible public sources such as streaming service announcements, official social media posts, or entertainment news outlets. Traders holding the winning outcome receive their payout automatically.
Several catalysts could shift odds significantly before resolution. Official announcements from streaming platforms or the artist's team about release dates would trigger immediate repricing. Social media hints, industry leaks, or statements from collaborators may also influence trader sentiment. Chart performance, tour schedules, or unexpected delays in production could sway expectations. Additionally, competing entertainment releases or platform algorithm changes might affect perceived likelihood. Traders monitor entertainment news outlets, official accounts, and fan communities for any signals that change the probability of a this-week release.