TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 28, 12:57 AM EST
Kalshi
European teams will compete in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, with various nations from the continent working to progress from the group stage through to the knockout rounds.
European nations are defined as those competing through UEFA qualification: France, Spain, England, Portugal, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Belgium, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Czechia, Switzerland, Türkiye, Sweden, Austria, and Scotland. The markets track how many of these nations reach the knockout stage, with outcomes ranging from at least one team advancing through all sixteen teams advancing.
Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts and media predictions. Markets reflect real-money conviction and aggregate trader beliefs, while analysts rely on statistical models, team strength ratings, and subjective judgment. For Europe: Teams to Reach the Knockout Stage, market prices may move faster than analyst updates when injury news, lineup changes, or recent match results emerge. Comparing the two reveals where consensus is strong versus where disagreement exists about which teams will advance.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, each team's knockout qualification is priced as a binary contract reflecting the probability traders assign to that outcome. Share prices range from near zero to near one hundred cents, with the midpoint indicating the implied probability. As new information surfaces—team form, injuries, tactical shifts—traders adjust positions, moving prices in real time. The spread between bid and ask reflects liquidity and uncertainty around each team's chances of reaching the knockout round.
The Europe: Teams to Reach the Knockout Stage market resolves on Jun 28, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official final group standings and bracket announcements from the tournament organizer. Each team's contract settles based on whether that team qualifies for the knockout stage. Once the group phase concludes and advancement is confirmed, all positions are settled and payouts are distributed accordingly.
Key catalysts include group-stage match results, which directly affect a team's points and qualification odds. Injury announcements to star players can shift perceived strength and market prices. Tactical surprises, unexpected team form changes, and head-to-head outcomes between rivals all influence knockout chances. Weather conditions, referee decisions, and late-tournament momentum swings may also sway trader sentiment. As matches unfold, market prices will adjust continuously, reflecting updated probabilities for each team's advancement.