TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Target Streams: 72,282,295
- Kalshi
Target Streams: 72,282,295 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 11, 2026
Closed: Jul 11, 2:42 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
eternal sunshine is an album that may experience increased streaming activity during the July 03 - July 09 tracking week. Streaming performance is measured globally across all platforms and reported by Luminate Data, LLC.
Kalshi
If eternal sunshine has above 72,282,295 Worldwide Streams during the July 03 - July 09, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds reflect real-money trader conviction and often diverge meaningfully from traditional analyst estimates. While entertainment analysts may rely on studio schedules, licensing timelines, and industry reporting, this market aggregates distributed knowledge from participants with direct financial stakes in the outcome. Comparing the current odds here to published forecasts from entertainment journalists and streaming analysts can reveal whether the market is pricing in information those sources have missed—or whether consensus expectations remain aligned.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing yes or no outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each share reflects the collective probability estimate: a share trading at 65 cents implies a 65% chance of the event occurring. As new developments emerge—studio announcements, licensing deals, or release date confirmations—traders adjust their bids and asks, moving the price to reflect updated expectations.
This market resolves around Jul 13, 2026, at which point the outcome will be confirmed based on whether the event has occurred. The resolution hinges on verifiable public reporting from credible entertainment and streaming industry sources. Once the deadline passes, the market will settle according to whether the condition has been met, with all positions paid out accordingly.
Key catalysts include official streaming platform announcements, studio press releases confirming a release date, licensing deal closures, or entertainment news coverage from major outlets. Earnings calls or investor updates from streaming services may also hint at upcoming content drops. Social media momentum, fan campaigns, or unexpected delays could shift trader sentiment. Even rumor and speculation from credible entertainment journalists can trigger significant price swings as participants reassess the likelihood of an imminent release.
