TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a professional Argentina Primera División soccer match between Estudiantes de La Plata and CA Unión scheduled for April 11, 2026. Markets across Polymarket and Kalshi assess the outcome (win/loss/draw) based on the result after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket uses three separate binary markets with asymmetric cancellation logic (draw resolves YES on cancellation; win markets resolve NO), while Kalshi uses a single three-outcome market with no explicit cancellation clause. This creates potential settlement conflicts if the match is canceled.Hero Tip:
The core divergence is structural: Polymarket's draw market has a unique cancellation clause that contradicts the win markets' cancellation logic. If you are long the draw on Polymarket and the match is canceled, you win; if you are long either team to win, you lose. Kalshi's three-outcome structure is cleaner but lacks explicit cancellation guidance. Before April 11, 2026, confirm Kalshi's cancellation protocol with the platform. Monitor AFA announcements for postponement or cancellation risk.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Three separate binary markets (Unión win YES/NO, Estudiantes win YES/NO, draw YES/NO). Draw market uniquely resolves YES if game is canceled with no makeup. Win markets resolve NO on cancellation. Resolution source: AFA official statistics or credible consensus within 2 hours of match end. Scope: 90 minutes plus stoppage time only.Kalshi:
Single three-outcome market: Estudiantes win resolves YES, Unión win resolves YES, or Tie resolves YES (mutually exclusive). No explicit cancellation clause provided. Scope: 90 minutes plus stoppage time only, no extra time or penalties.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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