TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 5, 1:01 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on the margin of victory in the Estrela Amadora vs Famalicao soccer match. Different outcomes are determined by whether Estrela Amadora or Famalicao wins by more than specified goal differences.
These markets resolve based on the goal differential if Estrela Amadora or Famalicao wins the match. The first two markets require Estrela Amadora to win by more than 2.5 or 1.5 goals, respectively. The latter two markets require Famalicao to win by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals, respectively. All resolve only for outright wins after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. If the stated condition is met, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by a small team of experts, while this market aggregates insights from many individuals. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply varying interpretations of the teams' strengths. It's common to see prediction markets move independently of sportsbook lines, especially as new information becomes available leading up to the event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the final spread of the Estrela Amadora vs Famalicao match. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable traders are rewarded and those with inaccurate predictions may incur losses. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to create a highly efficient and informative market.
This market resolves around Sep 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be determined by the official result of the Estrela Amadora vs Famalicao match. This means the difference in goals scored between the two teams will be used to determine the winning contracts. Traders will be able to see the final result and their payout status following the official confirmation of the match outcome.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Sep 5, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, team lineups, or changes in coaching staff for either Estrela Amadora or Famalicao could significantly shift expectations. Unexpected weather conditions on match day could also play a role. Furthermore, significant betting activity or large trades on Kalshi itself can cause price fluctuations, as traders react to new information or adjust their positions based on evolving sentiment surrounding the Estrela Amadora vs Famalicao match.