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$143.5b

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$195,145,316

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$1,731,064,451

482,647

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MATCHED EVENTS:

2,924

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

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62%

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Estonia vs. Luxembourg
kalshi
predict
polymarket

What is the result of Estonia vs Luxembourg?

Volume:
$1,240,500

Estonia

all

3 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 3, 2026

Closed: Oct 3, 2:03 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Estonia

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$490,274
N/A
N/A
$277,325
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Estonia

View
100%
69%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$125,613
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

EST

View
99%
67%
Yes 99¢No 1¢
—
$25,674
$109,570
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Draw

View
1%
31%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
$150
$16,969
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$175,168
N/A
N/A
$114,986
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw (Estonia vs. Luxembourg)

View
0%
31%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$24,257
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

LUX

View
1%
37%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
$232
$21,765
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Luxembourg

View
0%
38%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$230,603
N/A
N/A
$146,714
Settled
No
polymarket

Luxembourg

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$46,281
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of a UEFA Nations League soccer match between Estonia and Luxembourg, scheduled for October 3, 2026. Currently, the consensus probability of Estonia winning on that date is 100.0%, aggregating views from Kalshi, Predict, and Polymarket. Resolution will be based on official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers (UEFA). Keep an eye on the match itself on October 3, 2026, to see if Estonia secures the win as currently predicted.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms consistently define resolution based on the official result within 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with similar fallback procedures for data availability and handling of postponements/cancellations.Primary resolution logic: Official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers (UEFA)

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution is based on the outcome of the match within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
  • If the match is postponed, the market remains open until the match is completed.
  • If the match is canceled, win markets resolve to 'No' and the draw market resolves to 'Yes'.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Data Availability: If official statistics are unavailable within 2 hours of the match's conclusion, Flashscore data will be used. If Flashscore is unavailable, Sofascore data will be used. If neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
  • No Acceptable Data: If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, the market will resolve 50-50, or to 'Draw' where applicable.
Timing: Resolution will occur within 24 hours of the match's conclusion, or as soon as acceptable data is available, whichever is later.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This event is for the upcoming UEFA Nations League game, scheduled for Saturday, October 3, 2026 between Estonia and Luxembourg.

Kalshi

The markets resolve based on the result of the Estonia vs Luxembourg UEFA Nations League soccer match scheduled for October 3, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. A 'Yes' outcome for the Estonia market occurs if Estonia wins the match within regulation time. Similarly, a 'Yes' outcome for the Luxembourg market occurs if Luxembourg wins within regulation time. The Tie market resolves to 'Yes' if the match ends in a draw after regulation time. If the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as per the platform's guidelines. The markets exclusively consider the result after regular time and stoppage minutes, with no account for extended play or penalty decisions.

Predict

This event is for the upcoming UEFA Nations League game, scheduled for Saturday, October 3, 2026 between Estonia and Luxembourg.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi for this market, often differ from traditional sportsbook odds due to the differing incentives and information sources. Sportsbooks primarily aim to set lines that balance betting volume and ensure profit margins, while prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of the crowd. This means prediction markets can sometimes incorporate information faster and more accurately, especially regarding factors not explicitly considered by sportsbooks. However, sportsbooks may offer more competitive pricing on mainstream outcomes. Comparing both can provide a more comprehensive assessment of potential results for the Estonia vs. Luxembourg match.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi for the Estonia vs. Luxembourg match can diverge due to several factors. These platforms have different user bases, trading volumes, and fee structures, all of which can influence price discovery. Additionally, each platform may attract traders with different expertise or biases regarding international sports events. The liquidity of this market on each platform also plays a role; lower volume can lead to greater price volatility and divergence. Finally, differing interpretations of available information about team form and potential matchups can contribute to these price discrepancies.