TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 30, 2:31 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the potential outcomes of a soccer match between Ermesinde SC 1936 and Uniao SC Paredes, focusing specifically on the margin of victory for either team during regulation time. It examines whether either team secures a decisive lead over their opponent within the standard 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding any extra periods or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates various winning margins for Ermesinde SC 1936 and Uniao SC Paredes in their Taca de Portugal match scheduled for August 30, 2026. All outcomes are determined solely by the score after 90 minutes of regulation play plus any stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty kicks. Four distinct criteria define resolution: Ermesinde must win by more than 2.5 goals, Ermesinde must win by more than 1.5 goals, Uniao must win by more than 1.5 goals, or Uniao must win by more than 2.5 goals. Each criterion represents a separate market that resolves positively if the specified team achieves the corresponding goal-differential victory within regulation time; otherwise, it resolves negatively. The rules explicitly note that the platform hosting these markets—Kalshi—is not affiliated with the governing league, and all associated trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through continuous trading where participants set the probability of each outcome. The current top outcome reflects the collective wisdom of traders about which side is more likely to cover the spread in regulation time. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Trading volume of $1,301 over the last 24 hours shows how actively participants are engaging with the market. Prices can shift rapidly as new information about team news, player availability, or overall league trends emerges.
This market resolves around Aug 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result depends solely on the final score of the match after regulation time, specifically whether Ermesinde or Uniao meet the spread condition. No extra time or penalty shootouts are considered — only the 90 minutes (plus stoppage time) count toward determining the winner and the margin of victory for this market.
Injuries to key players, changes in coaching strategy, or recent form for either team can shift trader sentiment and move this market. Weather conditions on match day, disciplinary actions such as suspensions, and even transfer rumors affecting player morale may influence perceptions of performance. As the event draws closer, any public betting trends or analyst predictions released by sports media outlets could also cause price adjustments on Kalshi based on how traders interpret that new information.