TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 28, 1:54 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of an international soccer qualifier between two national teams. The result is determined solely by the final score after the regular 90 minutes plus any added stoppage time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts. Markets will reflect a clear win for either participant or a draw.
The event resolves based on the result of the Equatorial Guinea vs Sierra Leone professional AFCON Qualifiers soccer match scheduled for September 28, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. A market resolves to Yes if the specified team wins the match within this regulation time. If the match ends in a tie after regulation, the Tie market resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price. The event exclusively considers the result after regular time and stoppage minutes, with no regard for extra time or penalty shootout outcomes.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, often differing from initial sportsbook offerings. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market’s prices are driven purely by traders’ willingness to buy or sell. As more information becomes available – such as team news or injuries – this market can react more quickly and efficiently than traditional sportsbooks. It's common to see discrepancies, especially before the event, as the market aggregates diverse opinions and analyses.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders can buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices converge towards a fair value. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The prices are determined solely by supply and demand, meaning that if more people believe a particular outcome is likely, the price of that contract will increase, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments based on collective intelligence.
This market resolves around Sep 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Equatorial Guinea vs Sierra Leone match, as reported by recognized sports authorities. The platform will verify the final score and determine the winning outcome based on this information. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on losing outcomes will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Equatorial Guinea or Sierra Leone would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions on match day could also influence trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about coaching changes or internal team issues could also move the market. Monitoring sports news and analysis leading up to Sep 28, 2026 will be crucial for understanding potential catalysts.