TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 26, 6:55 PM EST
Polymarket
In the upcoming match between England and Spain, scheduled for September 26, 2026 at 2:45 PM ET: This market will resolve to "England" if England are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Spain" if Spain are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
In the upcoming match between England and Spain, scheduled for September 26, 2026 at 2:45 PM ET: This market will resolve to "England" if England are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Spain" if Spain are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on expert analysis and incorporate a profit margin, while this market allows traders to express their own beliefs and adjust prices based on new information. If there's a significant discrepancy, arbitrage opportunities may arise, where traders can profit by simultaneously buying and selling shares in the prediction market and placing bets at a sportsbook. It's common to see prediction markets more accurately reflect true probabilities as the event approaches.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether England or Spain will score first. As more shares are purchased for a particular outcome, its price increases, reflecting a higher implied probability. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a share represents the probability of that outcome occurring, scaled to a value between 0 and 100. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the collective intelligence of all participants, constantly adjusting to new information and sentiment.
This market resolves around Sep 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on which team officially scores the first goal in the England vs. Spain match, as determined by official match records. The platform will verify the result against reliable sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome will receive a payout of 1 USDC per share, while those holding shares in the losing outcome will receive 0 USDC.
Several factors could influence the price of shares in this market. Any news regarding player injuries, team formations, or changes in coaching strategy for either England or Spain could significantly impact trader sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions or controversies surrounding the match could also lead to price fluctuations. Furthermore, public opinion and analyst predictions, while not directly reflected in the market, can indirectly influence trading activity. Major upsets in other qualifying matches or recent performance of key players are also potential catalysts for movement.