TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Widow's Bay
- Kalshi
Widow's Bay - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 6, 2026
Closed: Sep 14, 11:08 PM EST
Kalshi
The Super Bowl LX Halftime Show starring Bad Bunny
Description
This event group conflates two entirely different Emmy categories across platforms. Kalshi's markets concern Outstanding Comedy Series winners at the 78th Emmy Awards, while Polymarket's markets ask whether specific variety/awards show specials will win Outstanding Variety Special (Live). The group name references the variety special category, but Kalshi's resolution logic is disconnected from that category entirely.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve on fundamentally different Emmy categories. Kalshi's 13 rules condition on Outstanding Comedy Series winners, while Polymarket conditions on Outstanding Variety Special (Live) winners. The group name references variety specials, but Kalshi's logic is entirely disconnected from that category, making Kalshi's markets logically incoherent within this group context.Hero tip: Treat Kalshi and Polymarket as separate, incompatible event groups. Kalshi appears to be a misconfigured or mislabeled market set. Polymarket's variety special markets are the only ones aligned with the stated group name. Request clarification from Kalshi before trading; do not assume Kalshi's comedy series outcomes will influence variety special winners.Critical divergence points:
- Kalshi: Resolves on Outstanding Comedy Series winners (The Bear, Hacks, Abbott Elementary, Only Murders in the Building, Shrinking, The Comeback, Nobody Wants This, Margo's Got Money Troubles, The Chair Company, Jury Duty Presents: Company Retreat, Tie, Rooster, Widow's Bay). None are variety specials. Key quote: 'If [Comedy Show] has won Outstanding Comedy Series at the 78th Emmy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Resolves on Outstanding Variety Special (Live) winner at 78th Emmy Awards (Sept 14, 2026). Nominees are variety/awards show specials (Super Bowl LX Halftime Show, Golden Globes, Grammys, Oscars, Tonys). Tie-breaker: alphabetical order. Key quote: 'This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for Outstanding variety special (live).'
Polymarket
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety special (live)”. If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
If Only Murders in the Building has won Outstanding Comedy Series at the 78th Emmy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If Shrinking has won Outstanding Comedy Series at the 78th Emmy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If Hacks has won Outstanding Comedy Series at the 78th Emmy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If Abbott Elementary has won Outstanding Comedy Series at the 78th Emmy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If The Bear has won Outstanding Comedy Series at the 78th Emmy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If The Comeback has won Outstanding Comedy Series at the 78th Emmy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If Nobody Wants This has won Outstanding Comedy Series at the 78th Emmy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If Margo's Got Money Troubles has won Outstanding Comedy Series at the 78th Emmy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If The Chair Company has won Outstanding Comedy Series at the 78th Emmy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jury Duty Presents: Company Retreat has won Outstanding Comedy Series at the 78th Emmy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie has won Outstanding Comedy Series at the 78th Emmy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If Rooster has won Outstanding Comedy Series at the 78th Emmy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets like those tracked here differ from traditional analyst forecasts in that they aggregate real-money bets from many participants rather than relying on expert opinion alone. Market prices reflect what traders are willing to stake on each outcome, creating continuous, dynamic odds that update instantly as new information emerges. While analysts may publish periodic rankings or predictions, this market's odds adjust throughout the day based on trading activity, often capturing breaking news or industry sentiment faster than published forecasts. Both approaches offer value, but markets excel at synthesizing dispersed knowledge into a single probability.
Several catalysts can shift odds before the ceremony airs. Industry award season results—such as wins at the Golden Globes, Critics' Choice, or other precursor ceremonies—often signal momentum and can reshape expectations. Media coverage, critical reception, and social media buzz around competing specials may sway trader sentiment. Announcements about which specials qualify or any last-minute production news can also trigger repricing. Additionally, historical voting patterns and Emmy voter demographics may influence how traders weight each contender. As the ceremony date approaches, late-breaking news or insider commentary typically drives the most volatile moves.