TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Allison Janney
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 15, 2026
Closed: Sep 14, 9:03 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event group covers prediction markets for the 78th Primetime Emmy Awards (2026) Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series category. Multiple platforms offer markets on individual nominees, with resolution tied to the official Emmy winner announcement scheduled for September 14, 2026.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms resolve on the same underlying event (official Emmy winner announcement) with identical tie-breaking and fallback logic (alphabetical order by October 31, 2026 deadline).Primary resolution logic: Academy of Television Arts & Sciences official sources, theemmys.tv, televisionacademy.com, and live broadcast of the 78th Primetime Emmy Awards ceremony on September 14, 2026Core resolution logic:
- Resolution occurs when the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences announces the winner of Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series at the 78th Primetime Emmy Awards
- Kalshi resolves YES if any of the 13 listed nominees wins the award
- Polymarket resolves to the individual nominee who wins the award
- If a tie is declared, no winner is announced, or ceremony is cancelled, resolution defaults to the nominee whose name comes first in alphabetical order
- Resolution must occur by October 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET or fallback logic applies
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Tie Resolution: If two or more nominees tie for the award, the market resolves to the nominee whose name appears first alphabetically (e.g., Allison Janney before Emilia Jones)
- No Winner Declared: If no winner is officially declared by October 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, resolution defaults to alphabetically first nominee among the eligible nominees
- Ceremony Cancellation: If the Emmy Awards ceremony is cancelled or the category is eliminated, resolution defaults to alphabetically first nominee
- Consensus Reporting: If official Academy sources are unavailable, credible media consensus on the winner is acceptable per Polymarket terms
Polymarket
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding supporting actress in a drama series”. If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
The Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Drama Series award at the 78th Emmy Awards recognizes exceptional supporting performances by actresses in drama series. Resolution occurs when any eligible actress wins this award, including the possibility of a tie if the Academy determines multiple actresses share the honor.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market prices reflect real-money bets from traders with financial incentive to forecast accurately, often incorporating information faster than traditional media analysis. While entertainment analysts rely on critical reviews, industry buzz, and historical voting patterns, this market aggregates dispersed knowledge from many participants. Prediction markets tend to update dynamically as new episodes air, award-season momentum shifts, or insider information surfaces. Analyst forecasts are typically published periodically and may lag market repricing. Neither source is infallible, but comparing the two can reveal where expert opinion and market consensus diverge—a useful signal for spotting undervalued or overvalued outcomes.
Polymarket and Kalshi attract different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and regulatory frameworks, which can cause temporary price divergence on the same outcome. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. One venue may see larger recent volume or more active participation from informed traders, pushing odds in one direction. Fee structures, user interface design, and platform-specific incentives also influence where traders choose to position. Additionally, each platform's order book depth and market-maker activity vary, affecting how quickly prices adjust to new information. These differences typically narrow as the event date approaches and arbitrage opportunities attract cross-platform traders.
New episode releases and critical acclaim can shift trader conviction around individual nominees, especially if a performance generates unexpected buzz or backlash. Award-season precursor wins—such as Golden Globe, SAG Award, or BAFTA outcomes—often trigger repricing as they signal voter sentiment. Industry publications and insider commentary about voting blocs or campaign momentum influence market perception. Cast changes, production controversies, or viral social media moments can also move odds. As the ceremony approaches, final analyst predictions and betting syndicates' positioning may accelerate repricing. Any major shift in perceived frontrunner status typically triggers rapid volume spikes and odds adjustments across both platforms.