TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
“The Pitt”
- Polymarket
“The Pitt” - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 15, 2026
Closed: Sep 15, 12:44 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding drama series”. If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Polymarket
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding drama series”. If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they reflect real money at stake rather than expert opinion alone. Traders in this market incorporate a wider range of signals—viewership trends, awards-season momentum, and fan sentiment—into their pricing. While critics and industry analysts may favor certain dramas based on artistic merit or narrative prestige, the market aggregates collective expectations about which show voters will actually choose. Comparing the two can reveal whether consensus opinion aligns with where traders see genuine uncertainty or disagreement.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader activity into real-time probabilities for each drama series. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome contract trades independently, and the price of a contract reflects the collective belief in that show's chances of winning. Buying a contract at a lower price and selling it higher as odds shift is how traders profit. The system ensures continuous liquidity and transparent pricing throughout the trading period.
This market resolves around Sep 14, 2026, following the Emmy Awards ceremony for Outstanding Drama Series. The outcome is confirmed once the winner is announced and verified against credible public reporting of the official results. Until that moment, all nominated dramas remain live trading opportunities, and odds will fluctuate based on new developments, industry chatter, and shifting trader conviction. Resolution is binary: one show wins, and all other contracts expire worthless.
Several catalysts can shift odds significantly before the ceremony. Critical acclaim or major award wins at precursor events like the Golden Globes or SAG Awards often boost a show's chances. Viewership numbers, social media momentum, and industry publications' predictions all influence trader sentiment. Cast or creator statements about the show's prospects can trigger moves, as can unexpected controversies or production news. As Sep 14, 2026 approaches, late-breaking reporting and final voting patterns may create sharp repricing. Tracking these signals helps traders anticipate market swings.
