TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 30, 4:01 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks the outcome of the first set between two professional tennis players in a high-stakes tournament match. The result depends solely on which player secures the victory in the initial set of their encounter. Outcomes are determined by official match results, with specific guidelines for handling disruptions such as injuries or postponements.
The market resolves based on which player wins the first set of the Emiliana Arango vs Xinyu Wang match at the 2026 US Open Women Singles Round of 128. If the match does not commence due to injury, walkover, forfeiture, or cancellation before any ball is played, the market settles at a fair price. Postponements or delays do not close the market; it remains open until the rescheduled match concludes, with a two-week window for final settlement. If a player retires during the match, markets can resolve based on completed play; unresolved markets settle at a fair market price determined by the Exchange. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders actively set the price for this market through their bids and offers, which determines the implied probability for each possible set winner. The current top outcome reflects the collective judgment of participants, with price changes reacting to any news, form updates, or betting trends that influence perceptions of likely results.
This market resolves around Aug 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the match result is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winner of the first set in the match will determine the final settlement, based on official match records and widely accepted sports news sources that report the result.
Key signals that could shift this market include player injuries, recent form or performance updates, changes in tournament conditions such as weather, and any notable statements from players or coaches. As the match approaches, betting trends on Kalshi will also react to these developments, potentially creating noticeable price swings ahead of resolution.