TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: May 30, 4:54 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Sabrina Carpenter's song "emails i can't send" will accumulate more than 23,051,333 streams on Luminate during the May 22–28 tracking week. On Kalshi, the leading outcome currently stands at 47.5%. Resolution will be determined by official Luminate worldwide stream counts for that specific week, with settlement expected by June 1, 2026. Watch the song's streaming performance during the May 22–28 tracking period to gauge whether it will exceed the 23.05 million stream threshold.
Prediction market odds reflect real-money consensus from traders on Kalshi, whereas analyst forecasts typically rely on historical streaming patterns, chart performance, and industry expertise. Market odds update continuously as new information emerges, while analyst predictions are often static or updated less frequently. For Sabrina Carpenter's streaming potential, comparing market-implied probabilities to music industry forecasts can reveal whether traders are pricing in factors analysts may have overlooked, such as playlist momentum or promotional activity during that specific week.
On Kalshi, the market is priced as a binary contract: will emails i can't send by Sabrina Carpenter exceed 23,051,333 streams on Luminate from May 22–28? On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy or sell shares reflecting their belief in the outcome. The current market price reflects the collective assessment of streaming performance during that exact week. As new data on early streams, playlist placements, and listener engagement becomes available, the price adjusts. Settlement depends on final Luminate stream counts reported for that period.
The market resolves on Jun 1, 2026. Resolution is determined by whether Sabrina Carpenter's song emails i can't send reaches the specified streaming threshold on Luminate during the May 22–28 measurement window. The outcome hinges on official stream counts reported by Luminate at the close of that period. Traders should monitor streaming platforms and Luminate data as the resolution date approaches to assess the likelihood of the threshold being met.
Key catalysts include playlist additions on major streaming services, which can drive significant volume spikes. Radio play, social media virality, and music video performance on YouTube all influence streaming velocity. Chart debuts and industry coverage can accelerate listener adoption. Real-time streaming data releases or early-week performance reports may shift market expectations. Additionally, competing releases or broader music industry trends during that week could affect listener attention. Tracking daily or cumulative stream counts as May 22–28 unfolds will provide the clearest signal of whether the threshold is achievable.