TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
ELH: Trinec vs. Mountfield HK
Description
In the upcoming ELH game, scheduled for March 25 at 12:00PM ET: If Trinec win, the market will resolve to "Trinec". If Mountfield HK win, the market will resolve to "Mountfield HK". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's resolution logic is fundamentally broken and resolves to YES for both possible outcomes (Trinec win OR Mountfield HK win), making the market logically unresolvable. Polymarket correctly specifies mutually exclusive outcomes (Trinec vs. Mountfield HK) with a defined tie-breaker (50-50 cancellation clause).Hero Tip:
Do not trade on Kalshi's version of this market. The resolution criteria state that the market resolves YES if either team wins, which violates basic binary market logic. Polymarket's market is the only logically sound option for this event.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Outlier (correct logic): Resolves to either 'Trinec' or 'Mountfield HK' based on final score including overtime and shootouts, with a 50-50 resolution if the game is canceled entirely. 'If Trinec win, the market will resolve to Trinec. If Mountfield HK win, the market will resolve to Mountfield HK.'
- Kalshi: Outlier (logically broken): Resolves to YES if HC Ocelari Trinec wins OR if Mountfield HK wins, creating a tautology where both possible outcomes trigger YES. 'If HC Ocelari Trinec wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Mountfield HK wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'
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