TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
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24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
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PLATFORM COVERAGE:
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Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 25, 11:07 PM EST
Kalshi
Two soccer teams will compete in a match where the outcome is determined by the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. The result will be a clear win for one team or a tie, with no extra time or penalty shootouts considered.
The event determines the winner of a professional USL Championship soccer match between El Paso Locomotive FC and Tulsa, scheduled for September 25, 2026. The market resolves based on the result after 90 minutes of play plus any stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks. Three possible outcomes are considered: a win for El Paso Locomotive FC, a win for Tulsa, or a tie. If the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, the market will resolve to a fair price. The event specifically excludes outcomes determined by extra time or penalty shootouts, focusing solely on the regular time result.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different kind of wisdom than sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market represents the collective prediction of informed traders. If a significant discrepancy exists between the two, it could suggest that the market believes the sportsbook is mispricing the probability of a particular outcome. However, it's important to remember that both represent probabilities based on different methodologies and information sets, and neither is guaranteed to be correct.
This market resolves around Sep 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will reflect the final result of the El Paso vs Tulsa match, as officially recorded by the league or governing body. Traders will be able to see the confirmed result on Kalshi following the conclusion of the game, and any outstanding contracts will be settled accordingly. The platform will verify the outcome against established sources.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market before Sep 26, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or shifts in coaching strategies could significantly impact the perceived probabilities. Unexpected weather conditions or even pre-game analysis from sports commentators could also sway trader sentiment. Furthermore, large volume trades from informed individuals could cause noticeable price movements, indicating a change in expectations about the El Paso vs Tulsa match’s likely outcome.