TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above $24M
- Kalshi
Above $24M - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 25, 2026
Closed: Jun 24, 9:45 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether Edgar Degas's sculpture Petite danseuse de quatorze ans will sell for above $26 million at Sotheby's upcoming auction. On Kalshi, the leading outcome currently stands at 89.0%, reflecting strong confidence in a sale price exceeding that threshold. Resolution will be determined by the actual hammer price achieved during the live auction on June 24, 2026, beginning at 1:00 PM EDT, with the final result confirmed by Sotheby's official sale documentation.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by the final lot sold price of Edgar Degas' "Petite danseuse de quatorze ans" as displayed on Sotheby's website following the live auction on June 24, 2026, 01:00 PM EDT. The artwork's sale price is evaluated against six progressive price thresholds ranging from $24M to $34M in $2M increments. Any price reported in non-USD currency will be converted to USD using the prevailing exchange rate at the time of verification. Each threshold operates independently: if the hammer price exceeds a given threshold, that corresponding market resolves affirmatively.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-time trader consensus, which often differs from traditional art market analysts and auction house estimates. While analysts may rely on comparable sales, provenance, and condition reports, prediction markets incorporate broader information—including recent market sentiment, collector demand, and macroeconomic factors. The Kalshi market allows you to compare the crowd-sourced probability against published expert valuations and pre-auction estimates from Sotheby's specialists. This side-by-side view helps identify where professional forecasters and active traders diverge on the likelihood of the $34 million threshold.
On Kalshi, the Petite danseuse de quatorze ans contract is priced as a binary outcome: will the lot sell above $34 million during the June 24, 2026 auction? On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy and sell shares representing yes or no positions, with the price reflecting the probability of the higher threshold being met. As new information emerges—auction house updates, collector interest signals, or market conditions—the price adjusts in real time. The current odds and recent volume provide insight into whether the market expects this masterpiece to achieve or exceed the $34 million benchmark at Sotheby's.
The market resolves on Jun 25, 2026, immediately following the live auction at Sotheby's. The outcome is determined by the final hammer price achieved for the Petite danseuse de quatorze ans lot during that session. If the lot sells at or above $34 million, the yes position resolves to 100 cents; if it sells below that threshold or does not sell, the no position resolves to 100 cents. Resolution is based on the official Sotheby's sale results announced at the close of bidding.
Several catalysts could shift market odds before the June 24 auction. Sotheby's pre-sale estimates, condition reports, and exhibition announcements may influence trader confidence in the $34 million threshold. Major collector activity, museum acquisitions, or competing sales of comparable Degas sculptures could signal demand strength. Broader art market trends, auction house commentary, and financial market volatility may also impact high-value lot valuations. Additionally, any news about the sculpture's provenance, conservation status, or cultural significance could prompt repricing. Traders monitor these signals continuously to adjust their positions ahead of the live auction.
