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EC Bahia vs. SC Corinthians Paulista
polymarket
kalshi

What is the result of EC Bahia vs. SC Corinthians Paulista?

Volume:
$1,572,758

Tie

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 27, 2026

Closed: Jul 26, 5:11 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Tie

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$251,424
N/A
N/A
$153,873
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Draw (EC Bahia vs. SC Corinthians Paulista)

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$58,413
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Bahia

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$362,137
N/A
N/A
$173,409
Settled
No
polymarket

EC Bahia

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$316,191
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Corinthians

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$339,916
N/A
N/A
$168,916
Settled
No
polymarket

SC Corinthians Paulista

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$244,677
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Intro

This market tracks the possible outcomes of the Brazilian Série A football match between EC Bahia and SC Corinthians Paulista scheduled for July 26, 2026, aggregating data from Polymarket and Kalshi, with resolution based on the official final result published by the CBF. The current consensus probability for the match ending in a draw is 100.0%, with a second outcome tracking an EC Bahia win at 0.1%. The key catalyst to watch will be the match itself on July 26, 2026, which will determine the final resolution of all associated markets.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Market structure divergence: Polymarket uses mutually-exclusive binary outcomes, while Kalshi uses three independent YES/NO markets that collectively guarantee one YES resolution. Both resolve to the same underlying match result, but the market mechanics differ.Hero tip: Both platforms will settle consistently based on the official match result. The divergence is structural, not substantive. Kalshi's three markets are logically redundant (exactly one will be YES), while Polymarket's three markets are mutually exclusive (exactly one will be YES). No settlement risk exists—only recognize the presentation difference when comparing odds across platforms.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Three separate binary markets (Bahia Win YES/NO, Draw YES/NO, Corinthians Win YES/NO) where exactly one resolves YES based on final match result. Mutually exclusive structure. Key Quote: If EC Bahia wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No.
  • Kalshi: Three independent YES/NO markets that each resolve YES if their condition is met (Bahia wins, Corinthians wins, or Tie occurs). Non-mutually-exclusive structure where exactly one will resolve YES. Key Quote: If Bahia wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Corinthians wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie is the result...then the market resolves to Yes.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This event is for the upcoming Brazil Série A game, scheduled for Sunday, July 26, 2026 between EC Bahia and SC Corinthians Paulista.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the final result of the Bahia vs Corinthians professional Brasileiro Serie A soccer match after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. Each possible outcome—Bahia victory, Corinthians victory, or a tie—resolves its corresponding market to Yes. If the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than two weeks away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates prediction market data on the EC Bahia vs. Corinthians match across Polymarket and Kalshi, allowing you to monitor real-time odds on the match outcome. Traders on both venues are pricing their views of who will win, and you can compare how each platform's community assesses the likelihood. The cross-platform view helps you spot consensus or divergence in how different prediction markets value the same event, giving you a fuller picture of market sentiment leading up to kickoff.

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price outcomes differently because they operate under distinct incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs directly—there is no house edge. This often means prediction market prices reflect crowd wisdom more transparently, though sportsbooks may incorporate sharper professional input. Comparing the two can reveal where public sentiment diverges from professional oddsmakers, potentially highlighting value or consensus shifts in how the match is perceived.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, which can cause temporary price gaps even on identical outcomes. Polymarket and Kalshi may also have different user bases with varying levels of familiarity with Brazilian football, leading to divergent probability estimates. Arbitrage traders typically exploit these spreads, but friction costs and platform-specific rules can prevent instant convergence. Monitoring both venues helps you identify whether price differences reflect genuine disagreement or temporary inefficiency.

Key injuries, lineup announcements, or recent team form could shift trader sentiment significantly. A winning or losing streak by either side, managerial changes, or public statements from players and coaches may influence confidence in the outcome. Weather conditions or venue factors closer to the match date could also matter. Additionally, any news about player suspensions, tactical shifts, or head-to-head history between these teams may prompt traders to adjust their positions, causing price movements on this market.