TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 17, 6:30 PM EST
Polymarket
In the upcoming match between EC Bahia and Associação Chapecoense de Futebol, scheduled for July 17, 2026 at 6:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "EC Bahia" if EC Bahia are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Associação Chapecoense de Futebol" if Associação Chapecoense de Futebol are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
In the upcoming match between EC Bahia and Associação Chapecoense de Futebol, scheduled for July 17, 2026 at 6:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "EC Bahia" if EC Bahia are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Associação Chapecoense de Futebol" if Associação Chapecoense de Futebol are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Prediction market odds and traditional sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance liability and profit margins, while prediction markets like this one are driven purely by trader conviction and capital allocation. Prediction markets frequently offer sharper pricing on niche outcomes like first goal scorers, since specialized bettors compete directly on accuracy rather than against a house edge. Comparing the two can reveal value opportunities and consensus strength.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that adjusts odds based on order flow and liquidity depth. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy and sell shares representing each player's probability of scoring first, and the cumulative price of all shares reflects the collective forecast. As capital flows into or away from a particular outcome, the price updates in real time, ensuring that the odds always represent the marginal trader's view of likelihood at that moment.
This market resolves around Jul 17, 2026, once the match concludes and the first goal is verified. The outcome is determined by which player scores the opening goal, confirmed against credible public reporting of the final event result. Early resolution may occur if the match is abandoned or postponed beyond the resolution window, in which case the market outcome will reflect the rules governing incomplete or rescheduled fixtures.
Several catalysts can shift odds before Jul 17, 2026. Team news—injuries, suspensions, or lineup changes—directly affects a player's availability and scoring probability. Betting syndicate activity or sharp money flowing into a particular outcome often signals inside information or analytical edge. Pre-match media coverage, injury reports, and official team sheets released closer to kickoff typically trigger the largest repricing. Weather conditions, referee assignments, and opponent tactical adjustments announced shortly before the match can also influence trader positioning on individual scorers.