TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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EC Bahia vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol
polymarket
kalshi

What is the result of EC Bahia vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol?

Volume:
$707,679

Bahia

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 18, 2026

Closed: Jul 17, 8:31 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Bahia

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$203,056
N/A
N/A
$88,028
Settled
Yes
polymarket

EC Bahia

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$187,708
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Chapecoense

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$184,070
N/A
N/A
$136,932
Settled
No
polymarket

Associação Chapecoense de Futebol

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$52,587
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$65,507
N/A
N/A
$50,183
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw (EC Bahia vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol)

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,751
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group covers a Brazilian Série A football match between EC Bahia and Associação Chapecoense de Futebol scheduled for July 17, 2026. Polymarket offers three binary markets (Bahia win, draw, Chapecoense win), while Kalshi offers a single market that resolves Yes for any outcome (win, loss, or tie). All markets settle based on the official result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket structures three mutually exclusive binary markets (win/loss for each team plus draw), while Kalshi structures a single market that resolves Yes for any match outcome. Both use identical event scope (90 minutes plus stoppage time, official CBF/governing body source), but market mechanics differ fundamentally.Hero tip: Polymarket markets are directional outcome bets. Kalshi's market is a binary on match completion—it pays out Yes unless the match is canceled with no makeup. Treat Kalshi as a liquidity/timing instrument, not a prediction market. Arbitrage opportunity exists if Kalshi Yes odds diverge significantly from the sum of Polymarket outcome probabilities.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Three separate mutually exclusive binary markets covering all possible outcomes (Bahia win, draw, Chapecoense win). Each resolves Yes or No based on official final result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Source: CBF official statistics or credible consensus if CBF does not publish within 2 hours. Cancellation with no makeup resolves to No for win markets and Yes for draw market.
  • Kalshi: Single market that resolves Yes for any match outcome (Bahia win, Chapecoense win, or tie). Scope identical to Polymarket (90 minutes plus stoppage time, Série A official result). Implicitly resolves No only if match is canceled with no makeup, though explicit cancellation language is absent.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This event is for the upcoming Brazil Série A game, scheduled for Friday, July 17, 2026 between EC Bahia and Associação Chapecoense de Futebol.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the final result of the Bahia vs Chapecoense Brasileiro Serie A match after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. Each outcome—Bahia win, Chapecoense win, or tie—resolves its corresponding market to Yes based on the match result. If the match is cancelled or rescheduled more than two weeks from the original July 17, 2026 date, the market resolves to a fair price in accordance with established rules.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates prediction market data across Polymarket and Kalshi for the EC Bahia vs. Chapecoense match. Traders on both venues are pricing the likelihood of different outcomes, with combined volume of $707,679 across all linked markets. The cross-platform view lets you compare how each community values the same event, revealing consensus strength or divergence in real time. Whether you're tracking match winner odds or exploring how different prediction markets price the same fixture, this consolidated feed surfaces the most active contracts in one place.

Prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks price events differently because they operate under distinct incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs through continuous price discovery. Prediction market prices often reflect real-time information and crowd sentiment more dynamically than sportsbook lines, which may adjust more slowly. Over time, prediction markets have shown competitive accuracy against professional oddsmakers, especially for events with high trader participation. Comparing this market's odds to your preferred sportsbook can reveal value opportunities or consensus shifts.

Team news—injuries to key players, lineup changes, or tactical shifts—typically drives sharp price moves in football prediction markets. Recent form, head-to-head history, and home-field advantage also influence trader positioning. Betting syndicate activity or large trades on either platform can signal informed conviction and trigger cascading moves. Weather conditions, referee assignments, or late-breaking roster updates closer to kickoff often spark volatility. Monitor both venues for unusual volume spikes or sudden price swings, which may indicate new information entering the market before it reaches mainstream sportsbooks.