TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 12, 6:50 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the potential point differential in an upcoming college football game, allowing participants to speculate on how decisively either team might win or lose. Each market corresponds to a specific margin threshold that must be exceeded for the bet to pay out.
All markets resolve based on the official final result of the Eastern Michigan vs Michigan St. college football game scheduled for Sep 12, 2026. For Michigan State win margins, markets resolve to Yes if MSU wins by more than the specified point threshold (ranging from 1.5 to 35.5 points). For Eastern Michigan win markets, resolution is Yes only if EMU wins by more than the listed margin (1.5 to 5.5 points). If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, all markets remain open and resolve per the actual result. If the game does not start within 48 hours of its scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price, meaning payouts are adjusted to reflect market probabilities at that time.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and to balance action, while this market represents the collective belief of traders. Often, prediction markets are more accurate than traditional point spreads, especially closer to the event. However, it's important to remember that both represent probabilities, and discrepancies can arise due to differing information or risk assessments. Comparing these odds can offer a broader perspective on the likely outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the Michigan State football spread. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, driven by traders' expectations. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the price reflects the aggregate sentiment of those actively trading, rather than a fixed calculation. As more traders participate, the price tends to converge towards what the market believes is the most likely outcome, making it a dynamic representation of collective intelligence.
This market resolves around Sep 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the Eastern Michigan versus Michigan State football game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by sports authorities, and will determine which side of the spread, if any, was correctly predicted by traders. The final spread will be the determining factor for payouts on Kalshi.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either Eastern Michigan or Michigan State would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, especially if they suggest adverse conditions impacting the game, could also shift trader sentiment. Unexpected coaching decisions or significant shifts in team performance during other games leading up to the event could also play a role. Public perception and analysis from sports commentators can also influence trading activity and, consequently, the price.