TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 11M
- Kalshi
Above 11M - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 26, 2026
Closed: Sep 26, 7:30 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks Drake's performance on a specific date, measuring how many global daily views his content receives on a major video platform. The outcome depends on whether view counts surpass various thresholds, reflecting audience engagement and popularity.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on whether Drake achieves specified global daily view thresholds on YouTube for September 25, 2026. Each market defines a unique threshold, and the market resolves to 'Yes' if the recorded global daily views exceed that threshold. All markets use view counts displayed from a New York IP address to ensure consistency. The data will be sourced from YouTube Charts by searching for Drake and selecting the 'Global' location filter. It is emphasized that YouTube has not endorsed these markets, and any references to YouTube are purely descriptive, with no affiliation implied.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Often, this market reflects a broader range of perspectives than traditional forecasts, potentially incorporating information not readily available to analysts. If analysts predict a certain view count, does that align with how traders are pricing the probability of that outcome in this market? Discrepancies can highlight areas of disagreement or uncertainty surrounding the event, offering valuable insights beyond simple predictions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their bids and asks based on new information and their own analysis, creating a dynamic pricing mechanism. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of its corresponding contract will climb, and vice versa.
This market resolves around Sep 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official view count for Drake’s new music video is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final market price will reflect the actual number of views achieved by the video within a defined timeframe. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will profit based on the difference between their purchase price and the final settlement price. This market provides a way to speculate on and profit from the success of Drake's latest release.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Early promotional activity for the music video, including teasers and social media campaigns, could influence trader sentiment. Unexpected collaborations or features announced before the release could also drive increased interest and trading volume. Furthermore, any news regarding Drake’s overall popularity or recent album sales could impact expectations for the video’s performance. Positive or negative critical reception upon release will likely be a major catalyst for price movement in this market.
