TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 11M
- Kalshi
Above 11M - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 25, 2026
Closed: Sep 25, 12:30 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the performance of a popular artist's YouTube views on a specific date, allowing participants to speculate on whether the artist will surpass various view thresholds. The outcome depends on the actual view count recorded on that day, reflecting audience engagement and content reach.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether Drake achieves specified global daily YouTube view thresholds on September 23, 2026. Each market corresponds to a distinct view count benchmark, ranging from above 11 million to above 15 million views. All markets use data accessed via YouTube Charts, searching for Drake and selecting “Global” as the location, with results sourced from a New York IP address to ensure consistency. The markets are independent; each resolves to "Yes" if the recorded view count exceeds its respective threshold, and "No" otherwise. Importantly, YouTube has not endorsed these markets or products, and any references to YouTube are purely descriptive, indicating no formal affiliation or endorsement.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts often rely on subjective assessments and historical data, this market reflects the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders. Discrepancies between the market’s implied probability and analyst predictions can highlight areas of disagreement or overlooked factors. It’s important to remember that both approaches have limitations, and this market represents a real-time assessment of potential outcomes based on active trading.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations regarding the final number of views for Drake’s release.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of views for Drake’s new release will be sourced from publicly available data and verified against credible sources. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or fulfill their obligations based on the final result.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major announcements regarding Drake’s release, such as the release of the official music video or collaborations with other artists, could impact expectations. Changes in social media engagement and pre-save numbers could also influence trading activity. Unexpected news related to Drake or the music industry in general could also cause shifts in the market. Any information that alters perceptions of the potential viewership will likely be reflected in the price action of this market.
