TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 13M
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Above 13M - Kalshi
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 15, 2026
Closed: Sep 12, 11:19 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether Drake achieves specific levels of global daily views on YouTube within a defined week. The outcome depends on whether his view counts surpass various thresholds at any point during the period, measured from a standardized New York IP address.
Kalshi
The event evaluates multiple thresholds for Drake's global daily YouTube views from September 7 to September 13, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific numerical threshold, and the market resolves to 'Yes' if Drake's views exceed that threshold on any day within the period. All markets use view counts reported from a New York IP address to ensure consistency. While each threshold is evaluated independently, the secondary rules consistently specify that view counts are subject to geographical variation and that YouTube has not endorsed these markets or associated products. The resolution relies solely on publicly accessible YouTube chart data for the artist, with 'Global' selected as the location parameter.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare prediction market odds to analyst forecasts for this specific event, as reliable pre-event forecasts for daily view counts are uncommon. However, generally, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than traditional polls or analyst predictions. This market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately assess the likelihood of different outcomes, potentially leading to a more nuanced and accurate prediction than a single analyst’s view. It will be interesting to see if the final outcome aligns with prevailing expectations.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing different potential daily view counts for Drake. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that view count occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices will adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. The goal is to create a market where prices accurately represent the likelihood of each outcome, allowing traders to profit from correctly predicting the final result.
This market resolves around Sep 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the highest daily view count Drake achieves across all major video platforms during the specified period, September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026. The exact methodology for determining the view count will rely on publicly available data and established industry standards, ensuring a fair and transparent resolution process.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Any major announcements regarding Drake’s upcoming projects, such as new music releases, tour dates, or high-profile appearances, would likely impact his viewership. Unexpected viral moments or controversies involving Drake could also drive increased attention. Furthermore, changes in the popularity of the platforms where his content is hosted, or shifts in overall entertainment consumption trends, could influence the market. Monitoring Drake’s social media engagement and media coverage will be key to understanding potential market movements.
